Super Bowl props: The running backs

We have looked at the quarterback and wide receivers props, but the running backs will get the ball some of the time, too. At first glance, Joe Mixon provides an edge for the Bengals. The Rams just don't feature a running back the same way Cincinnati has.

However, that is only semi-relevant as we look at the props market for running backs. What we are trying to do is forecast performance; and when it comes to running backs, game score and situations are huge. Who is winning or losing, by how much, and when are major influences on running back performance, especially in terms of attempts. 

Before we get into looking at the props, here are the final stats for the top rusher for each team.  

Joe Mixon (Bengals)
292 attempts, 1,205 yards, 13 TDs

Sony Michel (Rams)
208 attempts, 845 yards, 4 TDS

Here are the props you can find for running backs for the Super Bowl

Joe Mixon
64.5 yards
13.5 yards longest rush
91.5 rushing and receiving yards

Mixon's production during the season was pretty steady. Looking at that yardage prop, he was over that number in nine of 17 games, so just over half the time. He is definitely capable of big games, and when the running game is going, the Bengals feed him often; he had 20+ attempts five times. Cincinnati was 4-1 SU in those games, so if you like the Bengals' chances to win, this might be a correlated play to make. 

In the postseason he has certainly not been forgotten. In the AFC Championship Game he carried 21 times for 88 yards and was a big part of the Bengals' comeback. Cincinnati has to run the ball even if the Bengals are not getting much to keep QB Joe Burrow upright. He gets sacked a lot, and they don't want to get too one-dimensional 

Mixon has caught at least three balls in each of the playoff games, and that combined yardage prop looks good. To keep the rush honest, you can bet the Bengals are going to run a few screens, too. All it takes is one big one to get most of that. I like that play better than the rushing props against a stingy L.A. rush defense.

Cam Akers
63.5 yards
13.5 yards longest rush
83.5 rushing & receiving yards

The first and most obvious thing with Akers is that he was not the Rams' leading rusher during the season. He missed most of the year win an injury he sustained in August and appeared in only the final game of the season, carrying the ball three times for 5 yards.

It has been a totally different story in the playoffs, however, as he has more than double the number of carries of Michel. He is not putting up big yardage but he has definitely been the more featured runner. 

His numbers are interesting because at 63.5 yards, that is more than he has rushed for in any of the three playoff games the Rams have played. His high is 55 yards against the Cardinals in the wild-card round when they played with a lead nearly the entire game.

Akers might have a big day, but in general, I am not fond of backing players to go above their norms unless the payoff supports it. It is hard to make that case in this spot. He has five catches for 62 yards over the three playoff games, but most of that came on one 40-yard play. Right now I am more likely to fade him.