Three hottest seats on the Atlanta Falcons

Flush with cap space ($66.4 million), the Atlanta Falcons are in position to turn things around in a wide-open division. Derek Carr's signing with New Orleans gives the Saints the advantage early, but if the Falcons hit on their free-agent pickups and the draft, they could be a major threat in the division.

But if this offseason of promise turns into another lost season in Atlanta, major changes could be in order and seats could get red-hot.

1. Head coach Arthur Smith

Smith did an admirable job in 2022, his second year as HC and the Falcons first season since 2007 without QB Matt Ryan. The team's preseason over-under win total was 4.5, but Atlanta cleared that with ease, winning its fifth game in Week 11 and finishing 7-10.

Expectations should be higher in 2023. Tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London and running back Tyler Allgeier give the Falcons a promising young core of offensive weapons.

In Smith's two seasons as Titans offensive coordinator prior to landing the HC gig, Tennessee ranked in the top three in rush yards both seasons. After the Falcons ranked 31st in rushing in 2021 -- Smith's first year as head coach -- Atlanta finished 2022 with the third-ranked rush offense.

If the team fails to capitalize on its fortunate financial situation and better-than-expected 2022, Smith could be in trouble.

2. Quarterback Desmond Ridder

The organization's decision not to pursue Lamar Jackson puts a ton of pressure on Ridder, who showed potential but didn't wow anyone as a rookie in 2022. In four starts after replacing Marcus Mariota as starter, he went 2-2, completing 63.5% of his passes for 708 yards and two TDs.

He was drafted in the third round of the 2022 NFL Draft after a stellar college career at Cincinnati, a program he helped become the first mid-major school to reach the College Football Playoff in his senior year.

If he stumbles this season, the Falcons will be kicking themselves next offseason while also looking for Ridder's replacement. Don't expect him to get an extended grace period in 2023.

3. Cornerback A.J. Terrell

Among corners with at least 395 coverage snaps in 2022, Terrell tied with the Giants' Fabian Moreau for the most touchdowns allowed in man coverage at five, per Pro Football Focus.

Terrell's down year was a surprise after the corner was one of the best in football in 2021. That year, he allowed 29 receptions on 66 targets, a reception rate of 43.9 percent. He allowed 200 yards (6.9 yards per reception) and gave up as many touchdowns (three) as he had interceptions.

In 2022, Terrell allowed 39 receptions on 68 targets (57.4 percent) for 430 yards, an average of 11 yards per reception. PFF credited him with nine touchdowns allowed, and he didn't have an interception for the first time in three seasons. 

Terrell is entering the last year of his rookie contract. Last offseason, he looked like a cornerstone of a defense under construction. If he doesn't revert to his 2021 form, Atlanta will be back at square one.