Thursday Night Football prop: Looking a rookie's way

By Griffin Carroll | Last updated Sep 20, 2022 6:32 PM ET

'Thursday Night Football' has been kind to us for our long-play prop looks, and Week 2 saw the bets go 5-3 overall. Something about the bright lights gets us the bombs we covet, as long-play bets on TNF and MNF shared right here have gone 5-0 on the young season.

We'd very much like to keep that going, and I've found just the one.

George Pickens over 15.5 long reception (-110 MGM)

George Pickens, the rookie receiver out of Georgia, has been targeted just six times this season. While he may be lower on this team's totem pole, he's been out on the field as a true starter, seeing 85% of the snaps in Week 2 after playing at a 71% rate in his first game.

Pickens has just two catches on the year, with his long a 23-yarder this past Sunday against New England. The rookie's role in this offense is clear: he's the team's vertical threat. Four of his six targets have come 20+ yards down the field, giving him an absurd aDOT of 21.5 through two games.

The Cleveland Browns have been letting up chunk plays to start the season, and that has been primarily to the receiver position. Four of the six 20+ yard passes the Browns have surrendered in their first two games have been to receivers for an average of 49.5 yards per play. Cleveland's secondary is allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt (ninth-highest in the NFL), confirming that they have been getting gashed through the air up to this point.

Two of the longest passes allowed have both been to outside receivers. Corey Davis caught a 66-yard touchdown in Week 2 and Robby Anderson hauled in a 75-yard bomb and a score in Week 1.

PFF's grades rightfully have most of the Browns secondary down as a serious liability. Mitch Trubisky should also have a bit more time to operate, as EDGE Jadeveon Clowney is out and Myles Garrett is questionable.

As WR3 in this offense, Pickens is going to have himself some 1-on-1 chances, and given the amount of time he's on the field, I love him here at an extremely reasonable number. I don't hate his receiving yardage total either at 27.5, and kind of want to take him to score at +600. I smell our Sweat-Free Thursday SGP taking shape...

Anyway, I've bet this prop for 1u. It just takes one catch.

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