Two 'MNF' player props for Eagles vs. Seahawks: Loading up some pass-catchers
Everything points to a pass-heavy game script tonight in Seattle between the Seahawks and Philadelphia Eagles, and we're attacking the player prop market accordingly.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 41.5 receiving yards (-120 ESPN)
It could easily be a big DK Metcalf or Tyler Lockett (or both) kind of game, but I think there's some value here on grabbing the rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba to notch 41 or more receiving yards.
It's seeming likely that Drew Lock will be at quarterback tonight for Seattle, and when Lock has been on the field, he's targeting JSN more than any other receiver, with Smith-Njigba seeing 12 targets to Metcalf and Lockett's eight. That's obviously a small sample size, but I like following it here in an incredibly inviting matchup.
No team allows more receptions per game to WRs than the Philadelphia Eagles, a problem that could be exacerbated by top cornerback Darius Slay being inactive this evening. Tack on that Philly had had issues guarding the slot, and Smith-Njigba starts to look like an ever stronger option this evening.
The rookie receiver has a very juiced receptions line favoring over 3.5. When he's logged 4+ catches this season, he's averaging 49.7 yards per game, going over this line in five of seven games.
DeVonta Smith over 55.5 receiving yards (-120 ESPN)
Reports suggest Jalen Hurts is likely playing, but feel free to wait until his status is confirmed.
The Seahawks defense is another that we love to target with wide receiver props, allowing the sixth-most receptions per game to WRs, the sixth-most 20+ yard passes, and the eighth-most passing yards per game.
Philly has a very top-heavy WR group, with only A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith seeing targets in this offense. Both look like tremendous options, but I think I prefer Smith here at the lower line.
He's over this yardage number in four straight games, averaging 93.5 yards per game on 6.75 receptions per game.
I do think Smith's receptions prop at 4.5 is solid, but I think it's best to just load up the yards if you expect him to catch 5+ balls. He's averaged 94.6 yards per game the past five games in which he catches five or more balls, and has covered this line in 24 of 29 career games with such volume in tow.
Smith also has a slightly higher aDOT than A.J. Brown and sees a higher percentage of his targets 20+ yards down the field, which should benefit him here against a vulnerable secondary to explosive passes.
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