Two Monday Night Football player props
We wrap Week 1 with Russell Wilson's homecoming as the Broncos visit the Seahawks. It wasn't our best showing on Sunday, but Thursday Night Football was kind to us, so let's run it back with another primetime play.
Two props for tonight, looking at a vertical threat receiver to go long, and a tight end to haul in a TD from his new QB.
A common theme from yesterday was that while my identified pass-catchers did not haul in a deep pass, their teammates all did. Quarterbacks of my targets went 5-2 against their longest completion prop, so by all means, consider looking to Russell Wilson for a 40+ yard pass this evening.
1u: Courtland Sutton over 22.5 long reception (-114 FD)
Russell Wilson has been in the top-half of the league for 20+ yard completions seemingly every season, consistently finding either Tyler Lockett or DK Metcalf down the field for a big play.
His top receivers in Denver are Courtland Sutton and Jerry Jeudy, and my preferred choice to break off a deep catch has to be Sutton. The fifth-year receiver had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.4 last season, fifth-highest in the NFL among receivers with 30+ targets.
I'm hoping at this point you are familiar with aDOT, because I'll likely stop explaining it soon, but seeing such a high number confirms that Sutton works down the field and gets targeted in the second and third levels of the field.
Sutton hasn't yet had a breakout year, which I'll put on a weak cast of passers in Denver the past few seasons. He's a talented receiver who should get his opportunities in 2022, and that starts here on MNF.
Seattle's secondary doesn't scare me much, and I expect Wilson to uncork a few tonight. It certainly helps to see a Seahawks defensive line that ranked below average in rushing the passer in 2021, Wilson will have time.
I think Jerry Jeudy is in a good spot in this game as well, but hard to ignore reports that Sutton has become Wilson's go-to receiver.
.5u: Albert Okwuegbunam TD (+265 CZR)
Back when Nathaniel Hackett was calling plays for Jacksonville in 2017, one-third of their passing touchdowns went to the tight end position. Hackett went on to oversee some strong TE scoring seasons in Green Bay, namely Robert Tonyan's 11 scores in 2020.
All this is to say, Hackett likes to utilize the tight end, and with a gaping vulnerability for Seattle in the middle of the field, Albert Okwuegbunam seems primed to capitalize.
This is quite arguably one of the top TEs Wilson has worked with in his career. While there's no production to back up that claim, Albert O has displayed athleticism from the TE position that is sure to be put to use immediately.
Seattle allowed the fourth-most touchdowns to tight ends last season. I see the Broncos piling up plenty of points tonight, and I do think there's merit to expecting a big statistical game from Russ in his return home.
Okwuegbunam is TE1 and should be able to get open with Sutton and Jeudy commanding respect on the outside.
Griffin Carroll is focused on bringing you the betting numbers that matter. With a focus on the NFL, NHL and NBA, Griffin relies on a data-driven betting approach for prop bets, spread picks and over/unders. Griffin can be found on Twitter @griffybets.
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