5 reasons Chiefs will win Super Bowl LIV
Here are five reasons the Chiefs (14-4) will beat the 49ers (15-3) in Super Bowl LIV (FOX, 6:30 ET).
1. Mahomes plays up to the competition
San Francisco's second-ranked defense is superb, but Patrick Mahomes has not been hindered by high-quality opposition. The Chiefs' quarterback has played in seven games against teams ranked in the top half of defensive DVOA in the regular season and playoffs. In those games, Mahomes completed 172 of 240 passes for 2,064 yards (8.6 per attempt), 15 touchdowns and two interceptions. That's a passer rating of 115.0, better than Mahomes' overall season rating of 108.6. (The NFL regular-season average passer rating was 90.4.) Against top-half DVOA defenses, the Chiefs are 6-1 and averaged 28.9 points.
2. Chris Jones is healthy, playing at a high level
The defensive tackle's presence is a crucial X-factor for Kansas City's defense. With Jones this season, the Chiefs have yielded 18.2 points a game; without him, they have given up 24.8. Jones, who has battled a calf injury, returned in the AFC Championship Game after missing the divisional-round win over Houston, and made his impact felt immediately. Playing in a more limited role than usual, he created five pressures on just 21 rushes, tying his season best with a 23.8 percent pressure rate. With two weeks' rest, Jones should be back at peak health and ready to dominate.
3. Offensive tackles keep Mahomes clean
Taking down the 49ers requires a pair of tackles who can keep ends Nick Bosa and Dee Ford at bay. Kansas City has just that. Over 83 protection snaps in the playoffs, right tackle Mitchell Schwartz has allowed just one pressure, and left tackle Eric Fisher has allowed three. In the regular season, the duo ranked second and 27th, respectively, among 83 qualified tackles in pass-blocking efficiency (per-snap pressure rate allowed, with greater weight to sacks). The Chiefs are 6-0 against defenses ranked in the top half of pressure percentage, a testament to the ability of their tackles to hold top-tier edge rushers in check.
4. K.C. is built to beat run-first teams
To beat the Chiefs, you must be able to win a shootout. Since Mahomes took over as QB in 2018, when the Chiefs have lost, their opponents have averaged 35.2 points, the highest average allowed by any team in their losses. Opponents have also thrown 35.6 passes per games in victories over Kansas City, third most behind Baltimore and Philadelphia. 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo has thrown only 76 passes in his past four games.
5. Run game comes through in clutch
The Chiefs won't ground-and-pound opponents, but their rushing attack comes through in key moments. That is something Andy Reid's team has done especially well over its current eight-game winning streak. Since Week 11, the Chiefs have picked up a first down or touchdown on 29 percent of rush attempts, third best in the NFL over that span. In the playoffs, that rate has ballooned to 39.6 percent, best in the playoffs.
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