5 reasons 49ers will win Super Bowl LIV

Here are five reasons the 49ers (15-3) will beat the Chiefs (14-4) in Super Bowl LIV (FOX, 6:30 ET).

1. Sherman can shut down Hill's deep game

In the regular season, Chiefs wide receiver Tyreek Hill averaged 31.4 receiving yards per game on passes 20-plus yards downfield, third among wide receivers. San Francisco's defense is tailor-made to stop a player like him. The 49ers allowed a league-low 34 passing plays of 20-plus yards in the regular season. That is a testament to their Cover-3 defense and the elite level at which cornerback Richard Sherman executes his role in the scheme. Sherman allowed 0.44 yards per cover snap in the regular season, best among cornerbacks. His positioning on the left side of the defense is the perfect counter to Kansas City, which led the NFL in frequency of 20-plus yard passing plays to the deep right (one every 25 pass attempts).

Why Chiefs will win Super Bowl

2. Favorable matchups for Kittle, RBs

The Chiefs are highly vulnerable to running backs and tight ends. Kansas City allowed the most receiving yards per game to running backs (59.4) and the fifth-most yards per game to tight ends (60.1) in the regular season. Linebacker Damien Wilson ranked 81st of 87 qualifiers at the position (1.47 yards allowed per cover snap). Coming into the Super Bowl, the Chiefs have allowed a tight end to score a touchdown in three consecutive games. This bodes well for a 49ers offense that has the tight end ranked first at his position in yards per route run (George Kittle, 3.1) and the back ranked fourth (Kyle Juszczyk, 2.04).

3. They can shut down tight end Travis Kelce

San Francisco allowed 34.5 receiving yards per game to tight ends during the regular season, best in the NFL. Safeties and linebackers have chipped in excellent coverage to limit the opposition's safety valves over the middle. Safety Jaquiski Tartt ranked 10th of 65 qualified safeties in yards allowed per cover snap (0.27) during the regular season. Linebackers Dre Greenlaw (0.89) and Fred Warner (1.04) ranked 14th and 22nd, respectively, among 50 qualified linebackers.

4. Staley is in peak form

Left tackle Joe Staley battled injuries throughout the season, but he found his footing heading into the playoffs. He ranked fifth in pass-blocking efficiency (per-snap pressure rate with greater weight to sacks) among 83 qualified tackles. The 13th-year vet closed the season with a shutdown performance in Week 17, allowing zero pressures as he helped stymie Seattle's Jadeveon Clowney. In the playoffs, Staley has yet to allow a pressure. Kansas City's leading rusher on Staley's side is Tanoh Kpassagnon, who ranked 111th among 124 edge defenders in pass-rush productivity. This mismatch is critical, potentially giving Jimmy Garoppolo a comfortable blindside in a game in which he probably must pass more often than usual to keep up with Patrick Mahomes.

5. Williams is locking down the slot

The Chiefs did a ton of damage out of the slot against Tennessee in the AFC Championship Game, as Sammy Watkins and Tyreek Hill combined for six grabs on seven targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns from the position. San Francisco has one of the game's best slot corners in K'Waun Williams. In the regular season, Williams allowed a 69.3 passer rating out of the slot, second best among 39 cornerbacks with at least 150 snaps in slot coverage. In San Francisco's two playoff games, Williams has played against 10 targets out of the slot, allowing just 52 yards and two first downs.