NFC underdog report: Wild-card round
Six NFC teams are about to meet in the playoffs. Here’s how three can score an upset over favored opponents.
Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5)
With a true workhorse running back on the roster, Green Bay could give the Cowboys trouble and even win Sunday’s game. Packers running back Aaron Jones finished 2023 as the league’s 36th-leading rusher with 656 yards but impressed in the team’s final three games (all wins) with an average of 21 carries and 119.3 yards per contest. Even at 29 years old, Jones appears to have plenty left in the tank.
Only four teams allow fewer points and yards than Dallas, but its rushing defense is fairly ordinary, giving up 112.4 yards per game on the ground. With Packers quarterback Jordan Love making his first playoff start, head coach Matt LaFleur should continue to feed Jones the ball and Keep Dallas’ high-powered offense on the sidelines.
Los Angeles Rams at Detroit Lions (-3)
Were the teams to meet at SoFi Stadium, this game would be a “pick ‘em.” To beat the Lions in Detroit, the Rams need only to do what they’ve done over their past eight games. L.A. went 7-1 after its Week 10 bye, averaging 28.2 points per game. It would have run the table if not for an overtime loss to Baltimore in Week 14 but still put up 31 points on a Ravens defense that allowed a league-low 16.5 points per game.
The Rams also beat the Browns and 49ers, two teams that also play outstanding defense. With wide receivers like Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua and running back Kyren Williams, L.A. should do well against a Lions defense that allowed the 10th-most points in the regular season.
Philadelphia Eagles at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5)
Wide receivers Mike Evans and Miami’s Tyreek Hill led the NFL with 13 touchdowns in the regular season but this week, Evans gets to go against Philadelphia’s 31st-ranked pass defense. Last week, the Giant’s 31st-ranked passing offense put up 306 yards in a 27-10 win against the Eagles.
Tampa Bay’s Baker Mayfield mostly flew under the radar this year but finished the regular season with the ninth-most yards (4,044) and seventh-most touchdowns (28) among quarterbacks. Bucs running back Rachaad White just missed the first 1,000-yard season of his career (990) but caught 64 of his 70 targets for 549 yards and three scores.
With Eagles free safety Sydney Brown done for the year with an ACL injury and cornerback Darius Slay nursing a knee injury of his own, Tampa Bay’s passing game could face little to no resistance from a dysfunctional opponent that lost five of its last six games.
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