NFL player prop: Kelley gets the green

Coming off a season in which they returned to the playoffs but suffered a first-round defeat, the Chargers and Vikings were hoping to take a step forward here in 2023. But the specter of starting 0-3 now hangs over the heads of both teams as they prepare to meet at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis. While quarterbacks Justin Herbert and Kirk Cousins are expected to put on an air show, it’s a bruising ballcarrier who gets our backing for top prop:

The bet: Over 59½ rushing yards for Chargers running back Joshua Kelley (FanDuel)

After rushing for more than 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns in each of his two seasons at UCLA, Kelley was made a fourth-round pick by the hometown Chargers in 2020. However, his playing time to date has been limited by the presence of fellow tailback Austin Ekeler, who has become a star but will miss a second straight game with an ankle injury.

Kelley now makes just the third start of his pro career, and it’s an unfortunate coincidence that the previous two came against Tennessee’s staunch run defense. The Titans own a top-5 ranking this season and were the best in the league a year ago. But prior to being held in check by them last week, Kelley set a new personal best by rushing for 91 yards against the Dolphins.

Similar success could be found versus a Vikings defense that allowed D’Andre Swift of the Eagles to rumble for a career-high 175 yards on the ground. Seeing wider running lanes in a fast-paced game, Kelley figures to clear this number comfortably.