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Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Week 3 betting guide
Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9). Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports

Sunday Six-Pack: NFL Week 3 betting guide

It's just about that time to buckle up and enjoy Week 3 of the NFL, and after a week of research, we've got you covered with some of our favorite looks.

We had another 4-2 day here in Week 2, bringing our record on these plays to 8-4 through two weeks. Seems best if we keep the wins flowing in this fresh Sunday Six-Pack.

Read the shootout script: Kirk Cousins over 288.5 passing yards (-120 DraftKings)

The highest over/under of the weekend is Chargers-Vikings, and it's easy to see why: the secondaries. Los Angeles in particular has shown no ability to slow down the explosive passing game, the same type of issues that plagued them throughout 2022.

That's going to benefit Kirk Cousins here, but so does the game script. I think the Chargers and Justin Herbert can apply pressure and keep scoring on this defense, and I expect big chunk plays left and right.

My preferred way to attack that belief is through Cousins's passing yard total. So far, the Vikings QB has thrown for 344 and 364 yards. Both Ryan Tannehill (246) and Tua Tagovailoa (466) have easily surpassed their passing yardage lines when facing Los Angeles.

7 years strong: New England Patriots -2.5 (-115 FanDuel)

I'm very pro-New England in Week 3, and it's very much because of the eye test. Yes, they're 0-2, but they've been in these games. And these aren't losses to some slouches: they fell to Miami and Philadelphia. Mac Jones honestly looks better than I anticipated he would, and the defense is still a strength.

I don't really even think this game will be close. Zach Wilson looked horrendous in Week 2; oh, I am so sorry for what has happened to you Jets fans.

New England is the better team as is, and they love seeing New York. The Patriots have won 14 straight games against the Jets, in seven straight seasons of misery for New York. The closest any of these games has been has been five points. Lay the 2.5.

Colts can't stop WRs: Zay Flowers over 48.5 receiving yards (-115 DK) 

I've already written my weekly impassioned plea on my favorite WR prop, so I'll keep this one brief. I love everything about Zay Flowers this weekend.

I love that he's leading Baltimore in targets. I love that he has three 20+ yard catches already. I love that he operates close to the line of scrimmage in a game that might be rainy. I love how bad this Indianapolis secondary is.

I'm all in on Flowers.

Jags should meet little resistance: Jacksonville over 26.5 points (-120 DK)

When I look at this Houston-Jacksonville game, all I know is that everyone on the Jags offense looks like they could be poised to explode. There's edges here for both the Jacksonville passing and run game, and sometimes when both pop up, it's just better to pivot to the team as a whole.

Coming off a nine-point showing, I expect the Jaguars to find little resistance on Sunday. Last time Jacksonville and Houston met, the Jags won 31-3. Here's to a clean 27+ points this weekend! Houston allowed 31 points to Indy last week.

Chalky TD favorites: Kenneth Walker & Tony Pollard rushing TDs (+193 DK)

Sometimes you just need to bet on the obvious names, and the two most obvious names I'm seeing this weekend are Kenneth Walker and Tony Pollard to score touchdowns. Their prices certainly indicate as much, so we have to combine them to make this a playable bet.

Walker is facing a Carolina team that has already allowed five touchdowns to running backs, and Walker is fresh off a two-TD performance.


Follow Griffin Carroll at griffybets.substack.com for data, trends and targets for every NFL game, plus all the off-season news you can use. 


Pollard is playing the Cardinals, a team that has allowed the third-highest TD total to RBs this year, following up last season in which they also allowed the third-most.

Walker and Pollard have incredibly established red zone roles, and they should easily capitalize. Consider this pair to each find the end zone twice, if you're feeling spicy.

This RB is a catch: Jaylen Warren over 2.5 receptions (+110 BetMGM)

I love this spot and this price on Steelers backup running back Jaylen Warren. I use the word backup loosely there. He's playing only about 10% fewer snaps per game than Najee Harris, and he's second on the team in targets.

That passing-game usage is really what we need to know here. Las Vegas has allowed the second-most catches to running backs through two weeks, and last year they allowed the fourth-most. Three running backs have already finished with four catches against the Raiders, and now it's Warren's turn to jump on the party.

Warren so far has finished with reception totals of five and four. We just need three here.

Enjoy Sunday's slate, it should be a fun one!



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