Using PFF’s game simulator to predict the Eagles 2023 season
Pro Football Focus recently introduced a beta stage simulator that predicts game-by-game results for all NFL teams in 2023. We ran it three times for the Philadelphia Eagles. Here’s what happened.
Trial 1:
The first simulation has the Eagles jumping out to a 5-0 start before losing to Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets in Week 6. That’s completely reasonable. The first part of Philly’s schedule is certainly the easiest and Rodgers should have the kinks worked out after six weeks.
But the schedule gets much harder after the Week 10 bye. Still, PFF believes the Eagles will have no problem taking down the Chiefs, Bills and 49ers before losing to the Cowboys in Week 14. The team is favored against the Bills and Niners, but that’s still a pretty tall order for the defending NFC champions.
Trial 2:
A second run through the system gave identical results to the first trial, same record and the same scores. The Eagles still get out to a fast start, but it’s worth noting that Philadelphia still loses four of their last five games in this scenario.
Three of those games are on the road and according to the model, the Eagles follow up a loss in Dallas with a one-point loss to Seattle. PFF also thinks the Eagles end their season with two straight losses, one to the Cardinals and one to the Giants. Of course, late-season games can be tricky and there’s always a possibility that one of those games won't matter
Trial 3:
Here’s where it gets weird. In the third model, PFF has Philadelphia losing to New England 20-7 to open the season. The Patriots plan to honor Tom Brady before the game, but is that enough motivation to beat the Eagles?
It doesn’t seem likely, but neither does the 34-7 beatdown PFF believes the Eagles will take against the Commanders in Week 8. Sure, Washington ended Philadelphia’s perfect season in Week 10 last year, but unless second-year QB Sam Howell starts slinging it like Sammy Baugh, that score seems highly unlikely.
Remember, any beta program is a work in progress and PFF obviously has a few bugs to work out. But in the meantime, sites like this are a fun way to pass the time until the teams open camp.
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