Texas vs Oklahoma: Can the Longhorns find their SEC breakthrough?

The biggest question surrounding the game is the availability of Oklahoma quarterback John Mateer, who missed the Sooners' easy win over Kent State on Saturday as he recovers from a hand injury.

John Mateer injury: The game's biggest variable

Mateer underwent hand surgery after Oklahoma's September 20 win over Auburn, and his status for the Texas game remains uncertain. The junior has been exceptional this season, completing 67.4 percent of his passes for 1,215 yards and six touchdowns while leading the Sooners in rushing with 190 yards and five more scores. He ranks second nationally with 351.3 total yards per game.

The difference between Mateer and backup Michael Hawkins Jr. is massive. Hawkins threw for only 783 yards in seven appearances last season and struggled badly against Texas in 2024, managing 175 total yards in a 34-3 shellacking. Oklahoma's explosive offense becomes significantly more limited without their Heisman-contending quarterback leading the charge.

Texas struggles while Oklahoma rides momentum

Texas exposed serious vulnerabilities in their 29-21 loss at Florida. Quarterback Arch Manning was sacked six times as the offensive line was dominated throughout the afternoon. The Longhorns managed only 52 rushing yards, with Manning leading the team with 37 yards, while all other players combined for just 15 yards on 11 carries. Manning also threw two interceptions in the defeat.

Oklahoma enters with legitimate momentum at 5-0, including quality victories over ranked opponents Michigan and Auburn. The Sooners just demolished Kent State 44-0, and their defense recorded nine sacks against Auburn. However, they haven't faced an elite defense like Texas brings to Dallas on Saturday afternoon.

Despite offensive struggles, Texas boasts the nation's top defense. The Longhorns lead the country with an 89.4 percent stop rate, allowing only 0.66 points per drive and 17.5 yards per drive. Six defensive starters return from last year's squad, and they already shut down Hawkins once, holding him to three points in their previous meeting.

Final verdict: Who wins Texas vs Oklahoma?

This matchup looks completely different from last year's 34-3 Texas blowout. Manning is the new starter replacing Quinn Ewers, while Oklahoma features a new offensive coordinator in Ben Arbuckle and potentially a new quarterback. The neutral site at the Cotton Bowl splits any home-field advantage in the 121st meeting between these programs.

The bottom line comes down to Mateer's availability. With him healthy, Oklahoma's balanced offensive attack edges Texas in a close defensive struggle. Without him, Texas's elite defense overwhelms the inexperienced Hawkins, and the Longhorns grab their first SEC victory. 

Either way, expect a lower-scoring battle than the offensive fireworks these teams have shown separately. Texas enters more desperate after the Florida loss, but Oklahoma holds the cards if their star quarterback can play.