CFL best bets: Exploiting a glaring weakness

In a curious bit of scheduling, the Edmonton Elks are playing their third consecutive game on Thursday night. And for the third week in a row, a primary storyline involves whether they can finally earn their initial victory of the season. A breakthrough seems unlikely against the home-standing Winnipeg Blue Bombers, who are favored by more than two touchdowns, but the disparity between these two teams points us to an enticing prop:

The bet: Over 76½ rushing yards for Winnipeg Blue Bombers running back Brady Oliveira (DraftKings)

Through the first six weeks, Oliveira leads the CFL in both rushing yards (416) and yards from scrimmage (638). When the stout run defense of the Ottawa Redblacks held him in check last week, he compensated with 93 receiving yards, but the Bombers surprisingly suffered their second defeat of the season.

Prior to that outing, Oliveira was averaging an even 80 yards on the ground per game. He now gets to face the league’s worst defensive unit, as the Elks surrender 148 rushing yards per game and nearly six yards per attempt. Having to play this contest without defensive tackle J-Min Pelley and middle linebacker Nyles Morgan will only compound their problems.

The last time Winnipeg was coming off a loss, Oliveira was fed 20 carries and netted 120 yards. With his team looking to salt away its league-leading fifth win, he should see a similar workload tonight.