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The 2024 Sweet 16 is almost upon us, as March Madness rolls on into its second week.
Throughout this year's men's college basketball tournament, we've been updating the 2024 March Madness odds and our expert predictions to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament and to make the Final Four for every team in the field. In addition, our director of predictive analytics, Sean Koerner, is predicting the chances of each team to win the tournament and to make the Final Four, as well as setting his own lines on all of the teams and their 2024 NCAA Tournament odds to win the championship.
Heading into the Sweet 16, the UConn Huskies are the favorites to win the 2024 NCAA Tournament at +220. Our expert prediction gives UConn a 22.1% chance of winning the championship. UConn has been the betting favorite to win March Madness since Selection Sunday.
In the tables below, we've compared our expert projected odds with the available NCAA futures. Teams that are showing value between our predictions and the available lines are bolded and highlighted in green. If you're looking for predictions and best bets on who will win the 2024 NCAA Tournament or who will make the Final Four, these are best, data-driven projections you will find.
Updated Odds & Predictions to Win NCAA Tournament
| Team | NCAA Tournament Odds | Expert Prediction | Expert Projected Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | +220 | 22.1% | +353 |
| Houston | +550 | 16.4% | +511 |
| Purdue | +600 | 10.3% | +871 |
| Arizona | +800 | 7.5% | +1233 |
| Tennessee | +1200 | 10.1% | +890 |
| UNC | +1300 | 5.3% | +1774 |
| Marquette | +1500 | 4.9% | +1934 |
| Iowa State | +1800 | 4.8% | +1997 |
| Duke | +2300 | 6.2% | +1514 |
| Creighton | +2500 | 2.3% | +4254 |
| Gonzaga | +2500 | 1.9% | +5151 |
| Illinois | +3000 | 3.2% | +2985 |
| Alabama | +3600 | 3.7% | +2638 |
| San Diego State | +7500 | 0.6% | +17293 |
| Clemson | +8500 | 0.6% | +16440 |
| NC State | +12000 | 0.1% | +119699 |
| Texas A&M | +13000 | 0.1% | +165616 |
| Yale | +50000 | 0.0% | +3635776 |
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook. Check out the new user FanDuel promo code offer before placing your bets on the 2024 NCAA Tournament.
And then there were two — two teams with betting value to win the NCAA Tournament, that is.*
*Or maybe three. Our expert predictions account for the games still in progress. Based on the current live moneyline, Houston is also showing value as a national title bet, but we'll wait until the Cougars' game against Texas A&M is complete before saying that for sure.
Although Illinois is just on the cusp of being a good bet and Houston is showing value if the Cougars win their second round game, the current best bets to win the NCAA Tournament heading into the Sweet 16 are Tennessee (+1200, with our predicted odds +890) and Duke (+2300, with our predicted odds +1514).
Of course, those are just the available NCAA Tournament odds at FanDuel, so be sure to shop around at your available sportsbooks and compare the live lines to our expert projections.
Updated Odds & Predictions to Make Final Four
| Team | Final Four Odds | Expert Prediction | Expert Projected Odds |
|---|---|---|---|
| Connecticut | -240 | 55.8% | -127 |
| Arizona | +110 | 37.8% | +164 |
| Purdue | +125 | 36.3% | +176 |
| UNC | +170 | 29.1% | +243 |
| Tennessee | +210 | 35.6% | +181 |
| Iowa State | +400 | 21.4% | +367 |
| Alabama | +440 | 23.6% | +324 |
| Creighton | +450 | 14.8% | +577 |
| Gonzaga | +480 | 13.4% | +648 |
| Illinois | +650 | 17.0% | +488 |
| Clemson | +950 | 9.5% | +955 |
| San Diego State | +1600 | 5.7% | +1669 |
| Yale | +8500 | 0.2% | +50974 |
| Houston | OTB | 41.6% | +141 |
| Marquette | OTB | 28.2% | +254 |
| Duke | OTB | 26.1% | +284 |
| NC State | OTB | 3.0% | +3258 |
| Texas A&M | OTB | 1.2% | +8588 |
With the last games of the Second Round still in progress, the odds to make the Final Four are off the board for several teams either in action or awaiting results in their region.
But of those teams whose Final Four odds are live, Tennessee (+210, with our predicted odds +181), Iowa State (+400, with our predicted odds +367), Alabama (+440, with our predicted odds +324) and Illinois (+650, with our predicted odds +488) are all worth considering as your best bets to make the 2024 Final Four, based on our projections and the available lines.
Are you in North Carolina? North Carolina sports betting came online on March 11, so you can bet legally at major sportsbooks today. Learn more.
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