Dec 6, 2025; Phoenix, Arizona, USA; Arizona State University Sun Devils center Massamba Diop (35) against Oklahoma University Sooners at PHX Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anna Carrington-Imagn Images Anna Carrington-Imagn Images

Arizona State Receives Humbling NCAA Tournament Picture Update

Originally posted on Arizona State Sun Devils on SI
By Kevin Hicks | Last updated Dec 24, 2025 8:00 AM ET

TEMPE -- The 2025-26 Arizona State season officially began over the season - when head coach Bobby Hurley constructed a roster that was essentially completely new following a mass exodus after the 2024-25 season.

The regular season that began on November 3 was met with a start that exceeded expectations in virtually every way, as the Sun Devils secured four quad two victories - including triumphs over fellow NCAA tournament hopefuls in Hawaii, Texas, Oklahoma, and Santa Clara.

The last week has been somewhat damaging to the hopes of reaching the tournament for the first time since 2022-23, however, as the program suffered its first "bad" loss of the season on Sunday to a quadrant four loss to former Pac-12 foe Oregon State - ASU on SI examines how the Sun Devils were affected in a hypothetical bracket below.

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Sun Devils' Bracket Fortunes Regress With Crushing Loss

ESPN's Joe Lunardi - the most prominent bracketologist in the college basketball world - has bumped Arizona State down from the "last four in" territory to the "first four out" after the second half collapase to Oregon State in his updated bracket that was unveiled on Tuesday.

The bad news? Quad four losses are typically seen as no-gos as far as NCAA tournament ambitions are concerned. The Sun Devils have previously shown that a loss of that magnitude can be negated to an extent, however, as they were able to overcome a loss to Texas Southern in the 2022-23 season to reach the tournament that season.

Hurley's squad will have an opportunity to pick up several more season-defining wins, as UCF, Baylor, and Oklahoma State are current fellow bubble squads that they are set to square off with, while they will also face as many as six other teams that are slated to be a favorable seed line come selection Sunday in March.

What Does Arizona State Need to do to Return to Bracket?

The four quadrant two victories certainly help build a positive case for Hurley's team moving into Big 12 play - at least two of the wins have potential to turn into quad one wins as the season goes on as well.

However, Arizona State must continue to take care of business during a grueling Big 12 schedule - the general belief is that 18 or 19 wins will be enough to feel confident about being selected as an at-large representative in the field. A marquee win over a conference rival such as Texas Tech or BYU certainly wouldn't harm their case either.

Read more on why the Arizona State men's basketball team will exceed expectations in the 2025-26 season here, and on why the bright future of the football program isn’t dimmed by the loss to Arizona here.