Arizona vs. Michigan Basketball Prediction, Preview and Odds

Key Storyline: The Field Goal Battle

Both of these teams are elite from the floor. Arizona is the best field-goal shooting team in the Big 12 Conference, with a 50.3% shooting percentage, while Michigan is tops in the Big Ten at 51.1%. They get their buckets, and they can them easily. So who locks down in the paint? Who avoids the foul trouble down low? And who hits a couple of key three pointers when their team needs it? Michigan has the edge there, as they have attempted the sixth-most three pointers in the Big Ten, while hitting 37% from deep, which is third in the Big Ten. Arizona shot the fewest three pointers in the Big 12, but when they shoot them, they are efficient, at 37%, good for third in the league.

Match Up to Watch: Arizona’s Offensive Rebounding

Both of these teams have the size they need and are two of the best rebounding teams in the country. However, if there’s an area that might benefit Arizona, it’s the offensive glass. Arizona has made a living on the offensive glass this season, and Michigan, despite blowing out Tennessee, did give up 19 offensive rebounds in that game. Arizona was the best in the Big 12 in offensive rebounds, and if they’re not going to shoot at least 50% from the floor, they’ll need to win the battle for second-chance points.

Prediction: Arizona 85, Michigan 82

The three games that Michigan lost this season, against Duke, Purdue and Wisconsin, they allowed their opponent to shoot at least 45% from the field. This sets up for Arizona to get its buckets, as the Wildcats have shot well over 50% from the field in this tournament. Also, Michigan is 14th in the Big Ten in offensive rebounds allowed per game. This sets up for Arizona to pick apart the Wolverines in second-chance points. Lastly, Arizona has made a living at the free throw line. The Wildcats have attempted 1,020 free throws this year, over 200 more than anyone else in the Big 12. These will matter down the stretch in a close game that will be played into the 80’s, where the over hits as well.