Breaking Down BYU's Chances to Make a Run in the NCAA Tournament

On Thursday, the BYU basketball program will look to advance past the round of 64 for the first time since Jimmer Fredette carried the Cougars to the Sweet 16. BYU has a tough matchup in the first round against VCU who famously went on an improbable run to the Final Four back in 2011.

VCU will be looking to end a losing streak in the NCAA Tournament as well. VCU has lost five consecutive NCAA Tournament games dating back to 2016.

BYU was playing its best basketball at the end of the regular season. The Cougars won nine consecutive games before losing to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals. As a result, the Cougars are a trendy pick to make a deep run in the tournament. Today, we're looking at the numbers behind BYU's chances to make a run in the NCAA Tournament.

Of all the 6-seeds, BYU has the second toughest matchup in the first round according to ESPN BPI.

Can BYU Make a Deep NCAA Tournament Run?

First things first, BYU needs to survive the first round before a run becomes possible. BPI gives BYU a 57.3% chance to beat VCU and advance to the second round.

KenPom is slightly less optimistic about BYU's chances to avoid an upset in the first round. KenPom gives BYU a 55% chance to beat VCU.

The Second Round

Should BYU advance past the first round, they will play the winner of Wisconsin-Montana in the second round. KenPom would predict a close game between BYU and Wisconsin. KenPom would favor Wisconsin over BYU by 3-4 points.

If Montana pulls off the upset and advances to the second round, KenPom would favor BYU by 15-20 points.

ESPN BPI gives BYU a 21.1% chance to advance to the Sweet 16. Of the four teams playing each other in Denver, Wisconsin has the best chance to advance to the Sweet 16 per BPI.

• Wisconsin - 65.4%
• BYU - 21.1%
• VCU - 13.2%
• Montana - 0.3%

In other words, if BYU survives the first round, BPI gives BYU a 39.6% chance to advance to the Sweet 16.

The Elite Eight and Beyond

ESPN BPI gives BYU an 8.2% chance to advance to the Elite Eight. Alabama has the best odds to reach the Elite Eight according to BPI.

• Alabama - 52.2%
• Wisconsin - 27.6%
• BYU - 8.2%
• Saint Mary's - 6.3%
• VCU - 4.3%
• Vanderbilt - 1.3%
• Montana - 0.0%
• Robert Morris - 0.0%

Beyond the Elite Eight, BYU's chances to advance get slimmer and slimmer. BPI gives BYU a 2.0% chance to make the Final Four and a 0.6% chance to advance to the national championship game. BPI gives BYU a 0.2% chance to win the tournament.