Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: Clemson Tigers

 The final real non-conference test of the season for Cincinnati awaits Sunday in South Carolina against Clemson in the Greenville Winter Invitational.

Cincinnati enters the game 7-4 overall and ranked 79th nationally on KenPom, while Clemson is 9-3 and ranked 31st. ESPN's Matchup Predictor gives the Tigers a 73.3% chance to win the game on Sunday at 3 p.m. ET.

Jizzle James is back for the Bearcats and helped connect the rotation for Cincinnati's first complete game of the season, beating Alabama State 88-51 on Wednesday. Baba Miller (26 points and 14 rebounds in the win) is confident the work they've done in recent days will help them turn this season around.

"I feel like this game helped us a lot," Baba Miller said after the win. "Just to regroup and find our rhythm again. Now we have a few more days of practice to prepare for Clemson, a really good team. We're going to give it everything we have to keep taking the right steps."

Cincinnati is 3-1 against Clemson since the start of the 1949 season and can log its first Quad 1 win of the season with a victory.

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The pace was palpable from Cincinnati on Wednesday night against Alabama State. Speed the Tigers will do all they can to slow down as one of the most methodical teams in the country.

Clemson sports the 329th-fastest adjusted tempo in the country and loves to slow games down into muddy, dirty wars. They win a lot of those low-possession battles with elite turnover discipline (nine per game, fourth-best nationally), great work on the glass (26th in rebound rate at 55.6%), and solid free-throw shooting (74%, 109th).

Those are some brutal factors for Cincinnati to break through here. Clemson plays a 10-man rotation that's always fresh and sports serious size led by 6-11 center Carter Welling (10.3 points, 5.6 rebounds). Unlike Cincinnati, there aren't 2-3 players to key in on with box outs; the whole Tiger roster gang rebounds and will put UC in a brutal possession spot if Cincinnati can't win the glass.

Clemson won't turn it over consistently, bringing in just three players to this game that average more than one lost turnover per game, a factor UC's thrived off of when their offense is humming (15.5 forced TOs per game, 38th). Things get really difficult if the Tigers start hitting threes, an area they've struggled in this season (32.6%, 235th). If Dillon Hunter (43.8%) and/or Jestin Porter (37.5%) get hot from outside, the math problem adds another layer of difficulty.

Waking up the jump shot is going to be crucial for Cincinnati, given how unlikely it is they'll be able to tack on 15-20 fast break points in this pace-down game. Jizzle James' ability to create an open shot in murky late-shot clock scenarios could be the difference between 8-4 and 7-5.

He played one of his most efficient games as a Bearcat against ASU, hitting 6-9 shots from the field. James can't be expected to do that every night, but 50%-plus shooting from him Sunday may be necessary because outside of Baba Miller (63.3%), no one has found their shooting touch yet this season.

Unfortunately for Cincinnati, Clemson is one of the best half-court defenses in the country and will gladly let teams chuck up threes like UC has been privy to do this season (48.7% of shots from outside for UC).

Clemson funnels teams outside for 43.3% of their opponents' shots. Wes Miller noted his team needs to get more shots at the rim, and the numbers agree (32.3% of shots are close twos, below the national average).

"I think we're trying to make sure that getting the ball to the basket," Miller said about the offense. "That we're getting the ball inside of the paint, so that we're not punting possessions by taking quick bad shots. And there was some of that there in the second half tonight, we just took a quick bad shot, but we're really working through that without trying to take away the confidence, because we do want to step up and shoot it, and then the free-throw shooting. 

"We had a problem the last couple of years getting fouled, and now we're getting fouled a little bit better, but our free-throw conversion has been so poor that it needs to improve. So there's a little more to it than that, but I do think decision making, shot selection, getting the ball to the interior to put pressure on the defense, and then trying to convert the free throws and the layups. I mean, I think that's the stuff that that we have to really attack, and we have been."

It won't be easy to break through this tall front line on those basket trips.

Clemson allows a strong 32.2% close-two rate to its opponents, but teams are shooting 58.4% there. Getting into sound offensive possessions quickly, not being too happy, and winning the glass are the best ways for Cincinnati to pull this upset.

James playing in this game is a big boost as Cincinnati remains just a Jalen Haynes away from having its full projected team from the spring.

"It's been a hell of a run here for what feels like four years with devastating injuries," Miller said about the injuries on Wednesday. "It would be nice at one time to coach the team that you put together. I hope we get that opportunity. If you'd asked me two weeks ago, I would have said, 'There ain't no way Jizzle's playing'. It's nice to have him back in the fold. If we can get more whole with the way we put it together, I think that's best for the big picture."

Fans can watch the game at 3 p.m. ET Sunday on ESPN.

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