Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: No. 6 Louisville

 The Cincinnati Bearcats face one of their toughest tests of the season on Friday night against No. Louisville inside Heritage Bank Center. 

Cincinnati enters the game with a 17.8% chance to win the game on ESPN's Matchup Predictor as they try to be the second team all season to hold Pat Kelsey's team under 100 points. UC is ranked 41st on KenPom entering this game, while the Cardinals are 10th nationally on the site.

UC can earn its first Quad 1 win of the season and ignite the excitement if it pulls off the upset. Cincinnati is 44-56 all-time against Louisville, last playing them in the Maui Invitational in 2022 (81-62 Bearcats win) and 4-3 in neutral matchups like this one.

"I've heard about it for a long time," UC head coach Miller said about the rivalry between these schools. "These rivalry games are fun, so it's a great opportunity for us. I'm glad that we're playing a game like this, and I'm glad we're playing it in our city. I wish we were playing it in Fifth Third Arena."

Pace For Days

Friday marks a matchup between two of the fastest teams in the country. UC currently ranks 24th nationally in adjusted tempo, and Louisville is right behind them at No. 27. The Cardinals have been more effective with their offense, though, ranking second nationally with 103 points per game (Cincinnati scoring 78.5, 199th).

"I'm concerned about being the better team," Miller said about this game's pace. "We care a lot about our pace, but we're not in a competition for pace. We're about our pace, how we want to play, and doing a great job against the opponent. We're only trying to figure out how to win the possession-to-possession competition. I'm not trying to compare the pace of play by any means."

The Bearcats have to get more efficient and shoot the ball better from deep to have any real chance in this game (29.9% from deep through four games, 294th nationally). There's light breaking through that door crack against Louisville. 

Their massive amount of possessions has left them a little leaky ot the long ball this season (8.5 makes allowed per game, 267th nationally, 32.1% allowed from deep, 183rd).

UC really needs Shon Abaev and Kerr Kriisa to match the play level of Day Day Thomas and Baba Miller so far to pull this victory off. Those two went a combined 4-20 from the field against Mount St. Mary's, and Kriisa is shooting just 25.9% from deep (35.8% career shooter from three). Odds are the veteran and young bucket getter will regress positively eventually, but getting them heated up Friday is imperative, because U of L bangs home 12.8 threes per game (10th nationally on 36.4% shooting).

Down low, Cincinnati cannot box out with the lack of execution they've shown in the first four games. 6-11 forward Sanandu Fru and the rest of their rebounding terrors will make them pay if so. Louisville is outrebounding its opponents by nearly 10 per game.

Turnovers Tamped Down

The Bearcats did a nice job reducing turnovers against MSM on Sunday, but U of L is a whole different animal. MSM only forced eight miscues per game entering that contest (354th nationally), Louisville forces 17 per outing (34th nationally).

The ballhandling from Thomas, Kriisa, and other offensive engines has to be sound, or the fast-running Cardinals will ignite high-value transition looks as the seventh-most efficient offense in the nation this season. Their guard play has a ton to do with that, pairing the wily veteran Ryan Conwell (19.3 points, 4.5 rebounds, 1.8 steals) and phenom freshman Mikel Brown (19.3 points, 6.8 assists).

If those two get a bunch of chaos to work with, it's curtains for Cincinnati.

They have helped Louisville post five different players with 10-plus points per game averages. Cincinnati has to maintain composure in the half-court and stick with the most efficient shot diets near the rim and from deep. A win for Cincinnati is going to come down to maximizing their path to 80-plus possessions, keeping the turnovers under 15, and hitting at least 10 threes.

U of L has clamped down on offenses inside the arc, allowing only 44% shooting from two-point range (64th nationally), but has been prone to fouling (20 per game, 301st). That's not a big boost for UC, given Miller's teams have shot over 70% from the line for a full season just once in his five campaigns (worst percentage yet this season at 63.4%, 330th nationally).

Getting that closer to 80% than 60% on Friday would make a big difference in this daunting challenge.

The game tips off at 6:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.