Cincinnati Bearcats Basketball Storylines: V. BYU Cougars

UC Wes Miller and the Cincinnati Bearcats (13-9, 3-8) checked off the Quad 1 win box for the first time this season, and they get a chance at revenge against BYU (15-7, 6-5) on Saturday at 6 p.m. ET on ESPN2.

BYU hammered Cincinnati 80-52 a few weeks ago amidst UC's terrible offensive stretch to start league play. They just beat that full game mark in the second half against UCF (53 points) and are capturing some swagger entering another crucial game.

The Cougars are ranked 35th in the NET metric entering this game and 33rd on KenPom, while UC is sitting at 51st and 56th, respectively. Bart Torvik projects Cincinnati to lose 68-66.

UC is 2-2 against BYU since the 1949-50 season.

Offensive Storyline: RUN, RUN, RUN

Cincinnati found its offense thanks to UCF's play style on Wednesday night. It's clear what UC must do now: Stop thinking so much in the half-court and get up as many shots as possible while bringing waves of defenders on the other end.

UC's not going to shoot 58.5% consistently, but getting massive shot volume is something they can do, especially at home against a BYU team that's 64th nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency. They aren't going to slog this game into the mud fully as the 194th-ranked team in adjusted tempo on KenPom. 

They will try to make UC inefficient though, BYU ranks second nationally in opposing long two-pointers forced this season (36.2% of opposing shots). Attack the rim or take a triple—don't get caught in that highly inefficient no man's land (UC is 40.6% on long twos this season)

Cincinnati attempted 65 shots against UCF and is now 6-1 this season when shooting at least 62 field goals. Day Day Thomas's insertion into the starting lineup has been the biggest key to moving faster. He dealt a team-high six assists with great floor version and quickened pace all night. BYU rolls with a deep nine-man rotation, but it shouldn't keep Cincinnati from pushing the pace.

That speed helps get the whole rotation involved and led to four Bearcats scoring 15-plus points on Wednesday. Dillon Mitchell (season-high 19 points against UCF on 64.3% shooting) thrived in an environment that fit his game perfectly. Still, with great pace comes greater rebounding responsibility, UC won by 10 over UCF despite getting outrebounded 39-27, and 16 forced turnovers were a big reason why. 

BYU is a little below average nationally in turnover prevalence (192nd in turnover rate), but absolutely monstrous on the boards with a plus-7.3 rebound margin this season (24.3% def. rebound rate, seventh-best nationally). Cincinnati has to fuel that pace with consistent turnovers and not get hammered on the boards.

Defensive Storyline: Defend Denim

BYU is going to likely have someone go off on Saturday, but UC can't let multiple players get going, especially the 6-9 freshman phenom Egor Denim (11 points, four rebounds, 5.7 assists). He diced UC up with seven assists and 15 points in the first outing.

Denim controlled the whole game and bent UC's defense to his will. It unlocked shooters like Richie Saunders (team-high 15.1 points, 4.3 rebounds) and left UC no hope in the face of a 68.9% effective field goal rate outing from the Cougars. Hounding Denim in the halfcourt and keeping all Cougars away from the glass on box outs is a winning formula at home. 

BYU hit 11 threes in that game, but UC bowed up on the outside against UCF (five makes allowed) like they have most of the season and that likely has to get paired up on Saturday. It won't be easy against the 45th-best deep shooting team in the country (37%), especially one with four rotation players shooting 35%-plus on the season.

Denim is the head of the snake—leading the team in assist rate by 10% (34.9% assist rate this season). Hounding him off of his normal rhythm will throw a wrench in the whole BYU offense, giving Cincinnati its best chance at another Quad 2 victory.

Prediction: 75-74 Bearcats

Season Prediction Record: 17-5