College basketball best bets: Back this 'undervalued' team

Arizona vs. USC

Saturday, Mar. 9, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
USC +9.5 (FanDuel)

By Stuckey

I think this is a decent chance to sell high on Arizona after it locked up everything in the Pac-12 on Thursday night, thanks to blowout win over UCLA and a Washington upset over in-state rival Washington State.

Most importantly, I just think USC continues to be undervalued in the market in recent weeks now that the Trojans are fully healthy.

They dealt with so many injuries throughout the season, including in the first meeting between those two clubs when USC played without both of their dynamic starting guards, Isaiah Collier and Boogie Ellis.

Now that they’re at 100%, the Trojans are playing their best basketball of the season.

Over the past six games, they’ve gone 4-2, with the only losses coming by three to Colorado in double overtime and by three at Wazzu in a game they controlled most of the way.

During that span, USC has ranked as a top-30 team in overall Adjusted Efficiency.

I do worry a bit about Arizona dominating on the offensive glass, where the Trojans are vulnerable despite plenty of interior size — which will help against Oumar Ballo.

But ultimately, I can’t pass up taking near double digits with the now healthy and uber-talented Trojans.

Pick: USC +9.5 (Play to +8)

Cornell vs. Columbia

Saturday, Mar. 9, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN+
Columbia +6.5 (BetMGM) 

By Patrick Strollo

The Columbia Lions (13-13, 4-9) host the Cornell Big Red (21-6, 10-3) on Saturday in what will be the final game of the regular season for both teams.

Coinciding with Senior Night, I think Columbia should put together a strong effort and keep this game close down the stretch.

Our Action Network PRO Model projects the fair value spread for this game at 3, but the Lions are currently catching 6.5 points at home. This screens as one of our highest-value plays of the day, garnering an “A” grade with an 8.9% edge.

There’s more parity between the two teams than the betting markets will lead you to believe, and Columbia should be particularly motivated for revenge on Senior Night after dropping the first meeting of the year in Ithaca, 91-79.

Columbia will look to its 3-point offense to be the differentiator in this game. The Lions are the best 3-point shooting team in the Ivy League and rank 20th in the nation, connecting on 37.5% of attempts.

They’ll need to shoot at or above their season average in this game to cover the spread, but I feel comfortable backing them at home, where they’ve played their best basketball this season.

The Cornell offense is the superior of the two units, so it'll be imperative for Columbia to win the battle on the boards. The Lions aren't particularly fierce on the glass, but they scheme well against a Big Red team that's struggled to rebound this season.

I recommend taking the points in this contest and backing the home team on Senior Night. Columbia may not come away with the outright win, but it should be able to keep this game close. Triples and the battle in the paint should be the deciding factors for the cover.

Pick: Columbia +6.5 (Play to +5)

Texas A&M vs. Ole Miss

Saturday, Mar. 9, 2 p.m. ET, CBS
Ole Miss -1.5 (DraftKings)

By Matt Gannon

Ole Miss has one final chance to make a statement to the committee in its last regular-season contest against Texas A&M.

The Rebels have shown flashes of brilliance in Year 1 of the Chris Beard era, and this roster has postseason experience and a veteran presence.

Guards Matthew Murrell and Allen Flanigan combine for just under 30 points per game. I believe they'll be the X-factors in this matchup.

Texas A&M is a team that prides itself on defense, but it hasn’t been great on that end of the floor this season. When the offense is lacking and the elite defense isn’t elite, problems will arise.

Ole Miss should also have a massive advantage beyond the arc in this matchup. Looking at the metrics, the Rebels rank 26th in 3-point field goal percentage, while the Aggies rank 174th in opponent 3-point percentage. This is something the Rebels will exploit all game.

This contest should be close out of the gate, but I wouldn’t be shocked if the home Rebels put it together and pull away in the second half.

Lay the short number here.

North Carolina vs. Duke

Saturday, Mar. 9, 6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
UNC +4.5 (FanDuel)

By D.J. James

College basketball’s biggest rivalry takes place Saturday when the Duke Blue Devils take on North Carolina Tar Heels.

The last time these two matched up, UNC held its own. Now this game will be played at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

UNC’s defense can reign supreme in this game.

The Blue Devils are usually efficient inside and out, but the Tar Heels are holding opponents to 31% from deep and under 46% from 2-point range. Duke, meanwhile, allows opponents to shoot 32% from outside and above 49% from 2-point range.

Duke typically owns the glass against other teams. However, UNC is the better rebounding team in this game. The last matchup was about even, but the Tar Heels’ edge on the defensive glass should prevent the Blue Devils from grabbing put-back opportunities.

UNC’s Open-3 Rate is far better than Duke’s on offense, per ShotQuality, so the Tar Heels’ process is sound. Duke may have had better results from deep thus far this season, but UNC can hold its own.

The Tar Heels default to the post-up often, especially with Armando Bacot. Duke is awful at defending the post, so Bacot could have a field day down low, as he did the last time these two played.

In terms of keeping possession, neither of these teams turns the ball over often, so that should be relatively even.

However, since UNC has the better defense, the Tar Heels hold value. Take them to +3.

Pick: UNC +4.5 (Play to +3)

Did you know legal betting is coming to the Tar Heel State? Pre-registration is now live for North Carolina sports betting. As of March 11, you can legally wager at major NC sportsbooks.