College hoops weekend betting preview: Value bets ahead of Super Sunday

Last weekend we had a monster slate of Saturday games. Some lived up to the hype, and some didn't. That's the way it goes.

This weekend, with the Super Bowl commanding so much attention, we have a solid schedule, but it lacks a true blockbuster college event. Baylor vs. Texas should be fun, but it is not quite up there with the likes of Duke-North Carolina for true hoops fans.

Big games or not, we are in middle of conference play so continue to look for lots of close games and lots of chances to build your bankroll to invest in the big game. Here are the tilts that got my attention.  

Friday, February 11

Connecticut Huskies vs. Xavier Musketeers
7 p.m. ET FS1
Projected line: Xavier -2

The Mountain West has some solid Friday games again this week, but this game features two teams ranked in the top 30 at KenPom. The host Musketeers really need a win too. They have lost their last two and four of their last six to drop to .500 in the Big East. As I wrote the other day, this team is challenged by not having a particular strength or player it can lean on, which is why it often loses close games. As for UConn, it got back on track after a couple of losses with a win over Marquette in its last game, and big man Adama Sanogo is making a late case for Big East Player of the Year. He is one of the best inside presences at both ends of the floor in the country. UConn was embarrassed in its last road game at Villanova, but I am looking for a much better performance this weekend.

Take UConn (hoping we can get a +3 or better by tipoff)

Saturday, February 12

Texas Longhorns vs. Baylor Bears
12 p.m. ET ESPN2
Projected line: Baylor -6

OK, Texas...now what? The Longhorns just beat a strong Kansas team at home, scoring the last seve points of the game to win by three. They also scored 79 points, a high for them in a Big 12 game this season. Their defensive numbers are dazzling, but they seem to also be learning that the purpose of having talent is to score points and win games. On the other side of the floor, Baylor bounced back from its loss to Kansas last weekend by beating up Kansas State. The Bears' best game is still at a level that few teams can reach, but we have not seen that since the calendar flipped to 2022. They also have been beaten at home twice already this season. I would feel a little better backing the Bears if top scorer LJ Cryer was in the lineup, but he is still questionable with a foot injury. At home, in a letdown spot for Texas, the Bears are the play though.

Take Baylor

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
12 p.m. ET SEC Network
Projected line: Alabama -4

Arkansas just beat Auburn in overtime at home during the week. That makes this game a major letdown spot for the Razorbacks, right? Maybe. The simple fact is that this Arkansas team has been building for the last few weeks. The Razorbacks have won nine in a row, posting an 8-1 against the spread record during that stretch. They were just +1.5 hosting the top team in the nation so even though the narrative was "upset city," it was marginal really. In Alabama, we have a team capable of beating anyone (Gonzaga, Houston) and losing to Iona and Mizzou. The Tide's three-point shooting has been erratic all season long — actually, that has been true for both of these teams. Arkansas is surging but still the underdog in this spot. I like that situation a lot.
Take Arkansas.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Michigan Wolverines
6 p.m. ET ESPN

Projected line: Michigan -1

Ohio State has lost two of its last three games, both on the road. That is not a great indicator for the Buckeyes to beat a rival in Ann Arbor, but I like this spot. One thing that may help is that Michigan is playing Purdue on Thursday night. I see one of two outcomes for that game, a shocking upset that could lead to a letdown or a Purdue butt-kicking that leaves the Wolverines shell-shocked (most likely). Either way, I think this Michigan team, which has struggled all season with consistency, is going to have a tough time on Saturday. This game is kind of a must-win for the Buckeyes, and with the best player on either side in forward EJ Liddell, they can get it done.

Take Ohio State

UCLA Bruins vs. USC Trojans
10 p.m.
Projected line: UCLA -3

I think we can say that Arizona is the best team in the PAC-12 right now. The Wildcats are 10-1 and at the top of the league standings. UCLA might be the most talented, which is why its recent loss to Arizona State was so puzzling. What is USC? At 20-4, the Trojrans are bound for the NCAA Tournament, and if they can win at home on Saturday night, they will be 10-4 in the league (most likely in second place depending on other results). Is that likely? Probably not, but I like the Trojans on Saturday night. They have been in a lull for a while, but the Bruins could lure them out of it. I know last year's team had burgeoning NBA star Evan Mobley, but it also beat UCLA both times the two played. At home, you usually get a favorable whistle, and USC has been beating teams on the glass all season long. I just hate that the Trojans can't make free throws in what is going to be a close game. 

Take USC (wait for the best number)

Sunday, February 13

Colorado State Rams vs. Boise State Broncos
4 p.m. ET FS1
Projected line: Boise State -5

Super Bowl Sunday is a quiet day for the rest of the sports world. I know you don't want to counter-program against it, but a hot college hoops game at 1 p.m. EST would have drawn an audience, I think. Nevertheless, the Mountain West Conference is giving us a runway to open a bag of chips early and put our feet up. Boise State is tied with Wyoming at the top of the league at 9-1 while Colorado State is right behind at 8-3. Colorado State is an efficient offensive force while Boise State is surprisingly seventh nationally in defensive efficiency. Boise State has not lost a league game at home this season, and I expect that streak to continue against a CSU team that has fallen twice on the road already. I lean to Boise State on Sunday. Defense at home generally trumps offense.

Take Boise State.