ESPN BPI Gives Interesting Prediction for West Virginia vs. TCU

Originally posted on West Virginia Mountaineers on SI
By Schuyler Callihan | Last updated Feb 25, 2025 8:20 AM ET

Time is running out and West Virginia has to make sure it doesn't stub its toe between now and Selection Sunday. TCU is coming to town hoping to spoil the party and pick up yet another win over the Mountaineers. What's likely to happen?

What the BPI says

According to the ESPN Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, West Virginia has a 71.2% chance to split the season series while the Frogs have a 28.8% chance of sweeping the two-game set from the Mountaineers.

I've got to be honest here, although I do believe West Virginia wins the game, I expected this to be a lot closer to a 50/50 toss-up. TCU is playing great basketball of late and the Mountaineers are scuffling to find any momentum, even at the Coliseum.

West Virginia's recent games

The Mountaineers avoided a nightmare in their mid-week game last week against Cincinnati. They led by nine points and were shooting free throws with 15 seconds left before chaos ensued and had the Bearcats a three-pointers away from sending the game to overtime.

On Saturday, I'm not sure Darian DeVries could have scripted a better start against Texas Tech, who has one of the most potent scoring attacks in all of college basketball. For the first fifteen minutes of the game, WVU controlled the tempo and really had the Red Raiders out of sorts. The momentum Tech gained in the final five minutes spilled over into the second half in a big way, turning the game into a blowout.

TCU's recent games

A great start to the week ended with a disappointing finish for the Horned Frogs, who are doing everything they can to make a run at the NCAA Tournament. They secured a massive win over No. 9 Texas Tech, in large part due to their ability to get to the free-throw line. They went 15/22 from the charity stripe compared to Tech going just 5/8.

Oddly enough, the free throw discrepancy was the main reason they fell to Cincinnati, The Bearcats chucked up 17 attempts at the line, compared to TCU's four.