ESPN BPI: Gonzaga a 'lock' to make NCAA Tournament

Originally posted on Gonzaga Bulldogs on SI
By Cole Forsman | Last updated Feb 5, 2025 7:00 PM ET

Gonzaga's opportunity to secure a spot in the Big Dance is still a month out, though according to ESPN Analytics, the Bulldogs don't have to secure the West Coast Conference's automatic bid to be considered a lock to make the 2025 NCAA Tournament.

Bracketologists and others in the national media aren't ready to make such an assumption about the Zags (16-7, 7-3 WCC) just yet, especially not after they dropped a third game in WCC play to Saint Mary's last Saturday. While a loss on the road to the Gaels doesn't tarnish the resume, it's still true that Gonzaga doesn't have as many high-quality wins as the other teams ranked in the top 25 of the NET. That's why the Bulldogs, despite checking in near the upper echelons of KenPom and Torvik as well, feature somewhere around the double-digit seed line in most hypothetical brackets from credible outlets.

Eye tests aside, ESPN Analytics' BPI forecast appears certain in Gonzaga's ability to string enough wins together down the stretch of the season to pull off another NCAA Tournament berth. BPI's calculations give the Zags a whopping 99% chance of getting into the field, granting them "lock" status. Only 17 other teams in the country have at least a 95% probability rate of making the tournament at this point.

The Gaels were in the "should be in" category with an 81% of making the NCAA Tournament. Despite losing the first head-to-head battle, the Zags have the edge when it comes to forecasting which team will win the WCC conference title. BPI favors the Bulldogs (83.5%) over Saint Mary's.

When looking at the Zags through the lenses of the NET rankings, which determine a team's quality of wins and losses through the use of a quadrant system, Gonzaga is ranked No. 13 overall but is just 2-6 in the first quadrant (opponents ranked No. 1-30, neutral games against teams ranked No. 1-50 and away games against teams ranked No. 1-75).

Quad 1 and quad 2 wins are valuable to improving a team's NET ranking as opposed to quad 3 and quad 4 victories. Conversely, quad 3 and quad 4 losses can stand out as a blemish on a team's resume. Gonzaga is 3-1 in quad 2 games and a combined 11-0 against all other teams outside the first two quadrants, however, it ranks outside the top 50 in the country in strength of record due to its lack of marquee victories.

The Bulldogs still have a handful of opportunities to collect high-quality wins during the final month of the regular season, including two quad 2 games (vs. San Francisco, at Washington State) plus three straight quad 1 contests down the stretch against Saint Mary's, at Santa Clara and against San Francisco at the Chase Center.