San Diego State Aztecs center Magoon Gwath. Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

ESPN BPI predicts Boise State vs. San Diego State men’s basketball

Originally posted on Boise State Broncos on SI
By Bob Lundeberg | Last updated Mar 12, 2025 1:52 PM ET

The Boise State and San Diego State men’s basketball teams will be playing for their NCAA Tournament lives Thursday afternoon at Thomas & Mack Center in Las Vegas.

The Mountain West Tournament quarterfinal is scheduled for a 3:30 p.m. Mountain time tipoff.

San Diego State (21-8, 14-6) is looking to improve to 3-0 against Boise State (22-9, 14-6) this season.

Both teams enter the MWC Tournament on the NCAA Tournament bubble. The loser will likely have to settle for the NIT.

Can the Broncos salvage the season series with the Aztecs and remain in the NCAA Tournament picture?

What BPI says

According to ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) matchup predictor, San Diego State has a 50.5 percent chance to win Thursday’s game. BPI gives Boise State State a 49.5 percent chance to avoid a third consecutive loss to the Aztecs.

Boise State’s recent games

The Broncos’ five-game winning streak came to an end last Friday against red-hot Colorado State (22-9, 16-4) and superstar guard Nique Clifford.

Clifford erupted for a career-high 36 points as the Rams overcame a 10-point second-half deficit to take down Boise State on the road, 83-73. It was Colorado State’s seventh straight victory.

Sophomore forward Andrew Meadow has emerged as a big-time scorer for the Broncos. In Boise State’s final five regular-season games, Meadow averaged 19.8 points and 5.2 rebounds.

San Diego State’s recent games

The Aztecs have held it together without star center Magoon Gwath, who hasn’t played since suffering a hyperextended knee in the early minutes of a Feb. 22 loss at Utah State (25-6, 15-5). Gwath, the MWC Defensive Player of the Year and Freshman of the Year, is questionable for Thursday’s game.

With Gwath sidelined, San Diego State went 3-1 to close the regular season, including a 73-65 home victory over New Mexico (25-6, 17-3).

The Aztecs rank 12th nationally in KenPom defensive rating and limited Boise State to a season-low 47 points in a mid-February rout.