ESPN BPI Predicts Every Sweet 16 Game: March Madness 2025

Originally posted on College Football News
By Mathey Gibson | Last updated Mar 25, 2025 12:52 PM ET

The Sweet 16 is here, and things are about to get real.

We’ve got heavyweight matchups, underdog stories, and plenty of chaos ahead. ESPN’s Basketball Power Index (BPI) gives us a glimpse at who has the edge, but as we all know—March has a mind of its own. Can Tennessee finally solve Kentucky? Will Purdue hang with Houston’s relentless defense? And which team is about to bust everyone’s bracket?

With so much on the line, every game is must-watch. Here’s a look at what’s coming up, along with BPI predictions and key factors to keep an eye on.

Thursday’s Games

Maryland (6) vs. Florida (3)
6:39 PM ET, TBS/truTV

Florida holds a slight edge with a 61.6% win probability in what should be one of the most competitive games of the round. Maryland’s balanced play could make this a tight battle.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +3.0 Florida

BYU (7) vs. Alabama (2)
6:09 PM ET, CBS

Alabama is favored with a 64.7% chance to advance. BYU’s perimeter shooting will be key, but Alabama’s athleticism and depth give it the upper hand.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +3.8 Alabama

Arizona (2) vs. Duke (3)
8:39 PM ET, CBS

Arizona is a strong favorite at 76.0% to win, thanks to its depth and defensive pressure. Duke will need a big performance from its stars to pull off the upset.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +7.2 Arizona

Arkansas (5) vs. Texas Tech (4)
9:09 PM ET, TBS/truTV

Texas Tech comes in with a 72.5% chance to win, driven by its defensive intensity. Arkansas has been inconsistent, but if its offense clicks, this could get interesting.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +6.1 Texas Tech

Friday’s Games

Michigan State (2) vs. Ole Miss (6)
6:09 PM ET, CBS

Michigan State has a 64.4% win probability, using its size and defense as key advantages. Ole Miss has been unpredictable, but the Spartans have the edge.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +3.7 Michigan State

Tennessee (2) vs. Kentucky (3)
6:39 PM ET, TBS/truTV

Tennessee is the slight favorite with a 63.1% chance to win. Kentucky has already beaten the Vols twice, but getting a third win won’t be easy.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +3.3 Tennessee

Auburn (1) vs. Michigan (5)
8:39 PM ET, CBS

Auburn is a strong favorite at 79.5% to win, relying on its defensive pressure to neutralize Michigan’s size. Can Johni Broome step up to the plate?

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +8.5 Auburn

Houston (1) vs. Purdue (4)
9:09 PM ET, TBS/truTV

Houston is the biggest favorite of the night, with a 79.4% chance to advance. Purdue’s guard play has been solid, but Houston’s defense should control the game.

BPI Predicted Point Differential: +8.4 Houston

This article first appeared on College Football News and was syndicated with permission.

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