Has Clemson Basketball Hit Its Ceiling?

A week ago, Clemson basketball was tied for first in the ACC. And yet, just as the Tigers floated off the ground, gravity switched back on — an 0-2 week and a fall to third in the ACC. 

It felt like a punch in the face, but Clemson is far from knocked out. If anything, they are one of the best fighters in the ring, but this week was surely indicative of limitations. 

Against Duke, Clemson hit their ceiling. Of course, no one expected the Tigers to waltz into March as a No. 1 seed, but everyone saw Duke as an opportunity. 

It was attainable, and for months, everyone in the building knew that Feb. 14 was a date with destiny. 

Clemson's largest lead was two points — and that was when the score was 2-0. Then, Clemson led 18-17 with less than 10 minutes in the first half. Shortly thereafter, Clemson surrendered the lead for the rest of the game. But that’s what teams like Duke do. They suffocate. They make you think you can hang, and then they pull away at 80 miles an hour.

And that’s where the reality check is for Brad Brownell and his unit. 

“I mean, I thought we guarded about as well as we can guard and I thought our kids played their tails off. I thought we fought,” Brownell said. 

Fighting is a great thing, especially for a college basketball team. But it was never going to be enough against a projected No. 1 seed. As you inch closer to the top, “fight” becomes a non-factor. Not because it's not important, but because all the top teams fight just as hard, if not harder. It’s essentially nullified. The question then becomes, can you shoot the three ball better? Can you get stops when you need them? Can you make your free throws? Can you make plays under pressure?

Duke turned the game technical, and Clemson couldn’t keep up. But let’s slow down. Currently, Clemson’s NET ranking is No. 31 in the country.  Technically, Clemson will be better than half of the field of 68 teams that qualify for the NCAA Tournament. At the end of the day, there was a reason that Clemson was contending for the ACC in the first place. 

They are a good team, but their ceiling was exposed this weekend. 

The loss to Virginia Tech — take it how you want it. On the back end of a tough West Coast road trip, it is somewhat negligible. Against the ACC this year, Clemson has proven they are an upper echelon side. Prior to defeat at the hand of the Hokies, the Tigers’ only loss was in overtime against NC State. In 10 other ACC games, Clemson took care of business when they were expected to. 

That’s the floor. Clemson beats teams they should beat, with a few outliers (a reminder of the beautiful unpredictability of sports.) But when it comes to David vs Goliath matchups, Clemson loses when they should, too.

Having fallen out of the AP Top 25, Clemson has a shot back in. This week, it’s a reset. Away at Wake Forest on Wednesday and home against FSU on Saturday. Those should be wins. 

Then, the following week, Clemson has a backdoor opportunity to climb the rankings before the postseason: home against No. 21 Louisville on Feb. 28 and then away at No. 16 UNC on March 3. 

All eyes are forward for the Clemson Tigers, but behind them is a lesson they shouldn’t forget: what goes up, must come down.