Inside The Numbers: A look at Indiana basketball — how it got here and what’s next

Indiana basketball (12-7; 4-4) are nearly midway through Big Ten play and that means the regular season is halfway over. And, it’s not quite gone the way as expected.

Indiana enters the last part of January still looking for a résumé-building win — something hard to come by in the Big Ten.

There are some key numbers that explain how the Hoosiers got here.

Let’s break it down.

0 wins: That’s how many wins Indiana basketball has against Quad 1 opponents. Right now, it is 0-6 against those opponents. That is tied with Southern Cal and Iowa as the worst record by teams ranked in the top 101 in the NET rankings. 10 of Indiana’s 12 wins this season have come against Quad 3 and 4 opponents, with a 2-7 record against Quad 1 and 2.

Here is how the NET rankings are calculated:

• Quadrant 1: Home 1-30 (ranking), Neutral 1-50, Away 1-75
• Quadrant 2: Home 31-75, Neutral 51-100, Away 76-135
• Quadrant 3: Home 76-160, Neutral 101-200, Away 135-240
• Quadrant 4: Home 161-353, Neutral 201-353, Away 241-353

On the schedule, Indiana still has five Quad 1 games ahead — with just two of them at home.

15.7 points per game: Indiana’s seven losses this year have come by an average of 15.7 points per game — that includes five games by 10+ points and three of those five by at least 20 points. There’s no secret, when Indiana has lost this year, it hasn’t been close and games have been decided early. In the seven losses, Indiana has led for more than seven minutes in just three games. Here are some notable lead time discrepancies:

1:22 to 35:47 (UConn)

2:09 to 36:29 (Purdue)

3:50 to 33:23 (Nebraska)

6:45 to 32:51 (Wisconsin)

The one loss in which it led for the majority of the game was at home against Kansas — leading for the first 35:01 of game time before falling by four.

15.8 3s per game: That is Indiana’s number of attempted 3s in Big Ten games. Why is that an issue? It’s not only ranked last in the league, but that is even more of a detriment when IU is shooting 37.3 from three (6th in Big Ten). After a slow start this year, Indiana has turned into a good — not great — shooting team. But, the lack of attempts is extremely concerning. Indiana ranks 13th in Big Ten games with just 25.2 percent of its total points from three — the average is 30.4. Indiana is making 5.9 3s per game.

Five of Indiana’s eight Big Ten opponents have attempted at least 20 3s against IU. The other three were 16, 17 and 19 attempts. Indiana, however? Just two games with 20 attempts. Five games have been less than 15 attempts and two games less than 10.

So, regardless of the percent it’s shooting, it makes life for opponents much easier on the defensive end knowing Indiana has numerous unwilling shooters on the floor at all times. Overall on the season, Indiana ranks 347th nationally in three point attempts per field goal attempts. Its three-point attempt rate is 27.5 vs the national average of 37.4 percent. That translates to just one game of 10+ 3s on the season.

25.9 percent: Coming into this season Xavier Johnson was expected to be a huge part to the puzzle and someone to compete for an All-Big Ten spot come years end. But, it’s been anything but for the sixth-year captain. Johnson is shooting just 25.9 percent from the floor in Big Ten games this year, averaging 5.0 points, 1.8 assists and 2.2 turnovers per game. He has 11 assists, 13 turnovers and 14 fouls in six league games.

Since his return from injury, four of his six games have resulted in two points or less. He’s also been heavily scrutinized over his Flagrant fouls and ejection. Xavier Johnson hasn’t been the only issue this year, but the lack of production from him has been glaring and a big reason for the struggles this season.

66.4 percent: Despite Indiana in the top-35 in the country in free throw attempts, it’s shooting just 66.4 percent from the foul line this season — 316th nationally. It ranks 23rd in free throw rate but just 102nd in total point percentage from the foul line. In the last nine games, it’s taken a sharp dive — as IU has shot just 61.5 percent. That includes 81 percent against Wisconsin and 75 percent against Ohio State. In the last nine games, four times Indiana has shot less than 60 percent, including 44.4 percent (4-of-9) against Purdue and 26.7 percent (4-of-15) against Rutgers.

In that span, opponents are shooting 12 percent better from the line.

96th: This is the KenPom rating for Indiana basketball. 96th (!). It came into the year at 50th and has been on a constant decline ever since its season-opener. Indiana has finished outside of the top-50 in the KenPom ratings just three times in the last 10 years. You have to go back to 2011 for Indiana to be worse than 75th — finishing 82nd that season with a 12-20 record. Indiana finished 194th in 2010 after a 10-21 record. Archie Miller’s first year turned in a rating of 71st.

Here are the final rankings for the last five years:

2023 – 30th

2022 – 48th

2021 – 50th

2020 – 34th

2019 – 52nd

The current projections for the remainder of the season per KenPom have Indiana going 2-10 in the next 12 games.