Long Beach State vs. UC Davis odds, pick: 'Fired' coach could make history

Long Beach State vs. UC Davis Odds

Saturday, March 16, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2

Odds via bet365. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.

First, let's start with the Beach. They're totally Jekyll-and-Hyde, winning road non-conference games against USC/Michigan and then totally collapsing in numerous other games.

We're finally seeing the upside again, as Long Beach scored 1.20 PPP on UC Irvine's 34th-ranked defense (KenPom).

Even more surprisingly, Long Beach looked dead in the water entering the conference tournament, losing five straight games.

It's time to flush the season-long stats and focus on how the Beach is playing right now. They scored over 83 points in both conference tourney games, led by Aboubacar Traore.

In the quarterfinals, Traore tallied a triple-double and came up three rebounds and assists shy of recording another triple-double against Irvine.

Additionally, Marcus Tsohonis contributed 34 total points in the two games.

Dominating the glass is the Beach's biggest advantage in this conference title matchup. UC Davis ranks 273rd in defensive rebound percentage, and Aboubacar and Lassina Traore's create many second chances on the glass.

If you saw anything in the past two games, the Traore's can pass, too. The Aggies can't let the two bigs find favorable matchups, or it'll be a real problem.

Coach Monson will need some scoring from others, such as Jadon Jones and AJ George. The two lengthy wings provide some versatility to the Beach's attack, as Jones is more of a shooter (connecting on 39% of his 3s) while George drives more.

All five starters post 10+ points per game, led by over 17 from the sharp-scoring Tsohonis.

On the flip side, UC Davis made one NCAA tournament back in 2015, and that's the lone appearance for the program. Also, it's the final chance for the best player in program history.

Elijah Pepper will grace Big West fans with his presence. Pepper scored over 2,200 points in his five-season career and is a scoring threat from all three levels. The Beach need to put a body on Pepper on every possession and keep him from generating clean looks.

Pepper and fellow backcourt mate Ty Johnson are undoubtedly one of the best mid-major guard duos you'll find. Johnson contributes over 17 points per game and loves hitting floaters once he uses his speed to get into the teeth of the defense.

Jim Les doesn't have any other scorers to rely on, though. Johnson and Pepper combine for 38.1 points per game, and nobody else averages double-digit points. Kane Milling is the next best option, averaging 9.8 points on 34% shooting from 3.

While UCD relies on two scorers, Long Beach State has a bunch of players who could crack double-digits on any night.

While I wish Pepper could play in the NCAA tournament, Long Beach State is a terrible matchup for the Aggies. Long Beach contains significantly more athleticism and length than the Aggies. That should lend to the Beach dominating on the glass again.

UC Davis' two starting bigs — Ade Adebayo and Niko Rocak — are no matchup for the Traore's.

Another angle is Long Beach pushing the tempo. The Beach ranks top-25 in Adjusted Tempo compared to the more deliberate Aggies at 195th.

If the game ends in a track meet, it's right in the Beach's hands.

Pick: Long Beach State +2