Connecticut and Purdue. We are down to two for the National Championship! The NCAA Tournament has been a spectacle full of memorable moments. Let's finish strong.
Welcome to the March Madness National Championship edition of Action Network's betting primer.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, April 7, 1 p.m. ET.
This is the first National Championship where both teams are 5-0 ATS or better in the NCAA Tournament entering the game.
In 1981, both title teams were undefeated ATS at 4-0 ATS each.
If UConn closes this tournament out 6-0 ATS, it will be an absurd 12-0 ATS in consecutive tournaments and back-to-back national champions — putting the Huskies in a class of their own.
Connecticut or Purdue would join these teams as going undefeated against the spread (6-0), en route to a title since the tournament added a first round in 1983:
UConn, 2023
Villanova, 2018
Villanova, 2016
Duke, 2015
UConn, 2014
UNC, 2009
Florida, 2006
Duke, 1991
Villanova, 1985
Of course, that also means UConn would go 12-0 ATS combined in consecutive NCAA Tournaments, winning back-to-back titles. In March Madness history, seven different schools have won back-to-back titles, with there being a total of 12 instances of back-to-back titles being won, including UCLA winning seven titles in a row between 1967-73.
UConn in 2023-24 would be the first instance of a team covering the spread in each of its tourney wins en route to the back-to-back titles.
Largest scoring margin entering National Champ Game …
Purdue is at +98. This is the first title game since 1960 where both teams enter having outscored their opponents by 19+ PPG in NCAAT.
The Connecticut Huskies won the national championship last year, were the betting favorites entering this year's tournament with a chance to repeat, and were still the favorites entering the Final Four.
Since 1976, the 2024 Huskies were the seventh team to be favored to repeat entering the following tournament. The last was Florida in 2007, which completed the task and repeated. Of the previous six teams, Florida (2007) and Duke (1992) were the only two to go back-to-back.
Let's start with Dan Hurley. His 14-3 ATS (82.4%) record is the highest ATS win percentage for a coach (min. 10 games) in the seeding era since 1979.
Most Consecutive NCAAT ATS Covers Since 1979
We have 1-seed history in this year's Title Game.
Connecticut is a 6.5-pt favorite over Purdue in the Title Game.
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) April 7, 2024
That would be the 2nd-highest spread for a 1 v 1 seed title game behind 1999, Duke -9.5 vs. UConn (CON upset Duke).pic.twitter.com/2ujeyDvkLg
The best North Carolina sports betting apps are now live! Learn more and register for the best bonus offers.
Including the 6.5-point spread in the Title Game, Connecticut has been favored by a combined 78 points including the NCAA Championship — that is tied for the 7th-highest mark in the past 50 years.
Overall, favorites in the National Championship game are 40-13 straight up and 31-22 against the spread dating back to 1970.
ATS records for both teams this season:
Connecticut: 27-12 ATS (36-3 SU)
Purdue: 22-16 ATS (34-4 SU)
If UConn wins it all and goes 2-0 ATS in the Final Four, it would finish 28-12 ATS (70%). That would tie 2018 Villanova for the highest ATS win percentage for a national champion since 1995.
Connecticut is a perfect 5-0 straight up and against the spread in national title games. That's the best win percentage in national title games, and the most wins, among all programs.
UConn is 11-1 SU and 10-2 ATS in the Final Four in program history.
If you add up the Huskies men's titles and women's titles in basketball, they have 16 total national championships. Second on the list is UCLA with 11 men's titles (no women's), followed by Kentucky with eight men's and Tennessee with eight women's titles.
The only program with two or more titles in men's and women's is Connecticut.
How does coaching experience — specifically Final Four experience — impact results? Dan Hurley is the only coach in the field with Final Four experience.
Dan Hurley: 2nd
Matt Painter: 1st
Connecticut entered the Final Four as a big favorite …
Purdue is a 6.5-point underdog against Connecticut in the National Championship game — that is the Boilermakers biggest line as an underdog this season and their biggest line since November 15, 2022 against Gonzaga (they were +6.5 and lost by 18).
That game vs. Gonzaga is Purdue’s only game above a 6-point underdog since January 2021.
Purdue hasn't closed as an underdog in the NCAA Tournament since 2019.
Since Matt Painter took the Purdue job in 2005, here are the most profitable CBB coaches ATS in the NCAA Tournament — Painter is No. 4 of 353 coaches in that span after Purdue's cover against NC State:
It's all up to Purdue. The Big Ten conference hasn't won a title since Michigan State won it all in 2000.
This is the conference's biggest title drought in tournament history. The second-biggest was between 1960-1976 and ended with Indiana's perfect season.
A tale of the first men’s 1-seeds to lose to a 16-seed. Can Purdue match Virginia?
2018: 1 Virginia loses to 16 UMBC
2019: Virginia wins national title
2023: 1 Purdue loses to 16 Fairleigh Dickinson
2024: Purdue is in the National Championship Game
Going a step further — 36 top-three seeds have lost in the Round of 64 since 1985 (including 2024 Kentucky and 2023 Purdue). Six have made it to the Final Four the following season and three won the title: 2019 Virginia, 2015 Duke, 1987 Indiana. Purdue can join this list with one more win.
In this year's NCAA Tournament, favorites have dominated, especially the later rounds.
Favorites have had their way in this year's NCAA Tournament...
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) April 7, 2024
+ 38-28 ATS -- most profitable tourney since 2008.
+ Favorites of 8+ went 20-5 ATS -- best ever.
+ Top-3 seeds went 21-10 ATS vs. teams seeded 4+ -- best since 2009. pic.twitter.com/pjU54vIVUV
In the Bet Labs database, which dates back to 2005, the public (51% of spread tickets or more) is 27-28-1 ATS in the Final Four and national championship game.
In this year's tournament, the public has been on a ride.
When looking at the biggest public sides in that span, they are 0-3 SU and ATS in the Final Four. No team has closed with even 62% of the tickets or higher since 2008.
Biggest Public Sides in Final Four Since 2005
Team | Matchup (ET) | Year/Result |
---|---|---|
UNC | UNC (-2.5) vs. Kansas |
2008, Final Four UNC (70%) | Kansas, 84-66 |
Memphis | Memphis (-1.5) vs. Kansas |
2008, Title Game Memphis (65%) | Kansas, 75-68 |
LSU | LSU (-1.5) vs. UCLA |
2006, Final Four LSU (63%) | UCLA, 59-45 |
Connecticut has played 33 non-conference games over the past two seasons …
ESPN Bet is now live! Make sure you're ready for all the action with our exclusive ESPN BET promo code TANBONUS.
UConn is 33-0 SU this season when leading at halftime.
Over the last three seasons, they are 82-4 SU (72% ATS) when leading at the half.
The Final Four is in Phoenix, Arizona at State Farm Stadium, which also hosted the 2017 Final Four — the only college basketball event of note at the arena.
In the three games in 2017, the second half under went 3-0, going under the total by 7.3 PPG.
In the Final Four this year, the second half under went 2-0, going under the total by 19.5 PPG.
In the national championship game since 2011, the second half under is 9-3, going under the total by 3.1 PPG and one of the three losses was the Virginia-Texas Tech overtime game.
In the Elite Eight or later, the second half under is 59-31 (66%) since 2011.
The NCAA Tournament is all about prep. Here are the most profitable coaches ATS in the dance on two days rest or less. Which is the Round of 32, Elite Eight and National Championship. Painter and Hurley right at the top.
More must-reads:
Bark Bets is Yardbarker's free daily guide to the world of sports betting. You'll get:
Subscribe now!