Michigan vs Duke Prediction: National Championship Preview?

How To Watch Michigan vs Duke

Date: Saturday, February 21, 2026
Game Time: 6:30 PM ET
TV: ESPN
Location: Capital One Arena, Washington, DC

Projected NCAA Tournament Seeds & Final Records

Seed Projections
Michigan 1 | Duke 1
Final Record Predictions
Michigan 30-1 | Duke 28-3
Current Rankings
AP: Michigan 1, Duke 3
CFN: Michigan 1, Duke 2
Coaches: Michigan 1, Duke 3
KenPom: Michigan 1, Duke 2
NET: Michigan 1, Duke 2

Three Keys to the Game

- Can Duke handle Michigan’s size and bulk? The Blue Devils are bigger overall, but the Wolverines have the larger front court.

- Stop Boozer. Duke is more than just Cameron Boozer, but he has to go off. Michigan disperses its points more.

- Intensity. Michigan has a way of going through lulls. Duke’s defense is the most effective the Wolverines have seen all year.

Why Michigan Will Win

The Wolverines won’t allow second chance points.

Both teams are fantastic on the boards, but Duke doesn’t run as well as Michigan does, and it should have a harder time manufacturing points when the shots aren’t falling.

The consistency inside won’t be there for the Blue Devils, and while the threes will be there at times, they can’t rely on heating up from the outside.

To be blunt, Michigan is the tougher, nastier team. However …

Why Duke Will Win

Michigan makes a whole lot of mistakes.

It’ll turn the ball over a bit too much, it won’t do much of anything to create defensive clampdown/big plays leading to transition points, Duke should be able to force enough mistakes to make up for a few issues inside.

And no, it’s not like Duke is some shrinking flower. It’ll be big on the boards on both ends, won’t cower to the Michigan size, and it moves the ball around well enough to get the midrange shots needed, but ...

Michigan vs Duke Prediction & Betting Lines

Cameron Boozer has to go off, and the Duke threes have to drop.

The Blue Devils won’t be bullied, Michigan won’t be fazed by the runs and emotion, and this should be more of a back-and-forth slugfest than a wild scoring firefight - at least over the last ten minutes.

These two will trade punches all game long, but late, it’ll be the interior presence of the Wolverines - again, Duke is fantastic inside - that takes over when the Blue Devil outside shots don’t drop.

Prediction: Michigan 81, Duke 78
Consensus Line: COMING | O/U: COMING
ATS Confidence (1–5): COMING
Must-See Rating (1–5): 5

Consensus Line from BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.