NCAA March Madness: South Region Betting Preview

If Alabama represents the region in the Final Four they will have earned it. 

Top Odds to Win the South Region

Alabama Crimson Tide +190
Arizona Wildcats +360
Baylor Bears +550
Creighton BlueJays +800

Best Bet: Arizona Wildcats +360

Alabama deserves to be the top seed for the season they have had this year. I am just not seeing much value with the Crimson Tide at this price. Beyond that, Arizona is another elite offensive team so if it comes down to them against Alabama they can compete. They are also, not nearly as reliant on three-point shooting. Princeton can always be a little tricky but if they play a Creighton squad with a 7-footer in the middle they can match that with a couple of their own. 

Sleeper: Maryland Terrapins +2000

The Terps have a tough start to the Tournament, playing plucky West Virginia to open things up. They are a well-balanced team though, in the mid 30s in both offensive and defensive efficiency this season, and wins over teams like Purdue show they can beat very good teams. I hate their consistency but I love their four senior starters and big wings should they play Alabama in the Round of 32, which is the most likely scenario.

South Region Best Bet for Thursday

San Diego State -5 (vs. Charleston)

Charleston is a very popular pick to be one of those 12-seeds that rocks the upset. I don't want to diminish them, especially given they have already won 30+ games but I am not seeing it in this spot. SDSU is one of the best defensive teams in the country and they are a very experienced too. My only worry is the time/location, but a 3 p.m. ET start is not that bad for the Aztecs. The only teams that have beaten SDSU this season have better metrics than Charleston. A lot of folks want this one to happen but you need more than that. 

South Region Best Bet for Friday

NC State +5 (vs. Creighton)

All season long I have done well with the Wolfpack. I like that they can do a little bit of everything and in guard Terquavion Smith, they have a player who can keep a team in the game with his offense. He is not the most efficient player but you can rely on him for offense and with Jarkel Joiner emerging, NC State can count on their backcourt for 50 points if they need. That is a heck of a start in trying to pull an upset. They can keep this one close.