NCAA Tournament: Best bets for Thursday's Sweet 16 action

After a few days "off" we dive back into the NCAA Tournament on Thursday night with the first day of Sweet 16 action. 

A lot of top teams are in action with two No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds as the favorites in the four games; scratch that, Duke is actually a small underdog against No. 3-seeded Texas Tech.

If you are looking for the Peacocks from St. Peter's, you are going to have to wait until Friday night, but in all of these games, I give both sides a chance.

Here is a quick look at the four games and who we think is the right side. 

Thursday best bets

Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Gonzaga Bulldogs
Bulldogs -10.0

We really like this Arkansas team, but Gonzaga has been dominating nearly everyone all season long. The Razorbacks are not going to be intimidated as they have a number of good wins, but they are going to find it tough to keep up with the pace against Gonzaga. The primary disadvantage spot for Arkansas is inside. Jaylin Williams is really good, but Gonzaga has two skilled big men in Drew Timme and Chet Holmgren. They are tough to tangle with because their skill set is so different. Not to be ignored is Gonzaga lead guard Andrew Nembhard. He played all 40 minutes against Memphis in the last round and barely broke a sweat. If he is the best guard on the floor, and we expect he will be, Gonzaga wins with ease.

Take Gonzaga.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wildcats -5

Michigan has cost a lot of people a lot of money this season, but the Wolverines are earning their way back into the good graces of backers this month. Given the inconsistency we saw during the season, they have already outplayed their seeding, but Villanova is a tough opponent because the Wildcats just don't beat themselves. Michigan might have an advantage inside with center Hunter Dickinson, but other than that, Villanova should win at the other spots on the floor. Collin Gillespie and Justin Moore are a super-experienced backcourt and a big reason why Villanova is so steady throughout every game. The Wildcats lead the nation in free-throw shooting, and that makes them a very tough team to play catch up against.

Take Villanova. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Duke Blue Devils
Red Raiders -.5

We love to see Duke squirm, but we were surprised to see the Blue Devils as underdogs in this game. Duke is the higher seed, but Texas Tech and its elite defense has been impressive all season long. The Red Raiders are going to stymie Duke, but they're not going to be enough to get past the Blue Devils. We think this game is going to look a lot like the game that Texas Tech played against Gonzaga, another highly talented team. That game was close and low-scoring (for Gonzaga), but one spurt was the difference in the game. Look for a similar outcome here. 

Take Duke

Houston Cougars vs. Arizona Wildcats
Wildcats -1.5

This game is interesting because of the Wildcats' last game and the fact that they have struggled against elite defensive teams this season. Tennessee beat Arizona during the regular season, and TCU gave them all they could handle in their last game. Houston is another elite defensive team, and it has more talent than the Horned Frogs for sure. The Cougars just tore through Illinois too, proving they can beat a team that relies on size. This game looks to be one of toughness (Houston) vs. talent (Arizona). While above we leaned to Duke in a similar battle, in this spot we are leaning the other way. Arizona's talent is not nearly as high-end, and the Wildcats have a weak spot at a critical position with freshman lead guard Kerr Kriisa (plus a first-year coach). In games when he is off, the Wildcats really struggle, and we think this will be one of those.

Take Houston.