NCAA Tournament: Sweet 16 best bets

After a wonderful first four days of the NCAA Tournament (six if you count the First Four), we had to put our emotions and wagers on hold for a little while. A deep breath is never a bad thing, but now it is time to dive back in.

The Sweet 16 has lots of compelling matchups, even if it looks like midnight is coming for St. Peter's. You gotta love the Peacocks, but they could not have asked for a worse matchup than with oversized Purdue. That game has the biggest spread of those on Thursday/Friday.

Other than Gonzaga being a significant favorite over Arkansas, we are looking at a lot of games that could truly be won by either side. That is not always the case. 

Here are the games that I am looking at over the next couple of days.

Thursday

Michigan Wolverines vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wildcats -5

Michigan has had quite the season, and that is not even including that coach Juwan Howard was suspended for striking a Wisconsin assistant coach. 

Despite all of their inconsistency, they are in the Sweet 16, which is right where a team ranked in the top 20 to start the season is supposed to be. You can argue whether they should have been invited to the Big Dance, but wins over Colorado State and Tennessee have shown they more than belong. Things are going to be tough against Villanova, though. Big man Hunter Dickinson is going to have to have a strong game, and they need to find consistent offense without senior PG DeVante' Jones. 

As for Villanova, they have been strong in their first two games, wins over Delaware and Ohio State. After four days of rest, their depth issues are not going to be much of a problem but the size of Dickinson might be. Villanova was made for this time of year with its experience on the court and on the sidelines. The Wildcats should have an easy time of it against Michigan.

At -5, Villanova is one of the bigger favorites of the Sweet 16. I like the Wildcats to win, and if you are looking for a reason to back them to cover too, the fact that they lead the country in free-throw shooting (82%) might be it. They know how to keep and extend a lead late in games. A valuable skill for backers. 

Take Villanova. 

Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Duke Blue Devils
Red Raiders -1

Texas Tech is doing it again, using elite defense to challenge the hierarchy of college hoops.

The Red Raiders are going to have to play their best game of the season if they want to advance to the Elite Eight on Thursday. They have beaten good teams during the season but none that has the talent level of Duke. We all know what their approach is going to be, but whether it can deliver a win remains to be seen. Duke is a team comprised of players who are going to be in the NBA, many as early as next season. They truly have everything — talent, size, shooting, great coaching. Despite all of that, they are small underdogs against the Red Raiders. 

Texas Tech played Gonzaga on a neutral court earlier this season and lost by 14. Duke beat that same Gonzaga team. That is not the reason that Duke is the team to back in this game, but paints a picture that sometimes superlative talent is enough. It does not make the Red Raiders any less of a marvel, but their run ends in this spot, even if they are able to slow things down the way they did against the Zags. All Duke needs is one spurt to create the necessary separation for the win. 

Take Duke

Friday

Iowa State Cyclones vs. Miami Hurricanes
Hurricanes -2.5

After St. Peter's, these are the two least likely teams in the Sweet 16, and both have to like their chances of advancing because they get to face each other.

Iowa State was hot early in the season but got exposed in Big 12 play. Now the Cyclones are in a great spot to advance to Elite Eight. Defense is the key for the Cyclones. as they have given up 54 and 49 points to their first two opponents. If they can hold Miami down like that, it will be impressive. 

Miami's strength is scoring the ball. The Hurricanes are super experienced and hard to rattle as a result. Their perimeter players might not be NBA-bound, but they are super productive, just ask Auburn. 

This is a small number and the odds are that whoever wins the game covers. It is going to be a battle over who sets the tempo that most suits their strengths. I am leaning to the Miami side with its experience, especially on the sidelines.

Take Miami.