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NCAAB betting: Tennessee vs. Alabama caps off a five pack of plays for Saturday, March 2

By Matt Wiesenfeld | Last updated 3/1/24

It is now March and Selection Sunday is on the horizon. I have looked ahead to the weekend slate of action and Saturday is definitely the day to hunker down and enjoy.

Here is a look at my five best games and how I will be playing them.

Tennessee Volunteers @ Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, March 2, 8 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Alabama -2.5

Alabama was on the road last weekend and it was a dud performance at Kentucky. This is a talented team with massive splits across several performance metrics. Their offense is elite but their defense needs a lot of work. Tennessee is somewhat the polar opposite. It tells us a lot that Alabama is favored at home against a team that beat them by 20 points in the road earlier this season. Only one team has bested the Tide in Tuscaloosa this year and they are 12-3 ATS at home as a favorite.

Recommended Pick: Alabama. I know they killed me last Saturday but at home it is a different story.

Marquette Golden Eagles @ Creighton Bluejays
Saturday, March 2, 2:30 p.m., Fox
Spread: Creighton -3.5

The top of the Big East is loaded this season. UConn looks great as the defending champs and these two teams are not far behind. Marquette won and covered at home and now they have three straight wins against the Bluejays. That is some positive momentum, but I am not sure it is enough to carry them to a win on the road. Five of their six losses have been away from home this season and inside and on the perimeter the Jays have favorable matchups.

Recommended Pick: Creighton. These teams have different strengths but are very similar in overall quality. I think Creighton busts that streak but the game will be close throughout.

Kansas Jayhawks @ Baylor Bears
Saturday, March 2, 1 p.m. ET, ABC
Spread: Baylor -4.5

Kansas is simply not the same team without forward Kevin McCullar. His status for this game is uncertain and even with him, it is hard to fade Baylor at home. Sure, the Bears have lost a couple of games at home (in OT) but if you watch them they seem to be getting better. Their best player is a freshman and that is totally normal. Kansas is not an underdog often (no matter where the game is played). They are just 1-2 SU in that role and if you are not picking them to win that is telling you something.

Recommended Pick: Baylor. I hope some money comes in on KU so we can get this one at just a single possession, but I still like the home side.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, March 2, 1 p.m. ET, BTN
Spread: Wisconsin -2.5

The Badgers were probably never as good as their lofty ranking. Now they are at a point where they are running out of time to prove they are NCAA-worthy. Illinois is a highly thought of team and they have a revenge angle here but is that enough for a team that might have peaked too early. Wisconsin is solid and tough at home (just a couple of losses), but they are not really special in any way, individually or as a team.

Recommended Pick: Illinois. The Illini are in and have next-level talent that can shine on the road.

Michigan State Spartans @ Purdue Boilermakers
Saturday, March 2, 8 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Purdue -9.5

Purdue is one of the best offensive teams in the country, maybe the best depending on what metrics you like. The Spartans have talent too, maybe more of it, but their inconsistency is maddening and it is hard to see them rising up on Saturday, even though a win would probably seal an NCAA bid. How likely is that after a couple of bad losses. I know coach Tom Izzo will use that to rev up his team but Purdue is so tough to match up with because of big man Zach Edey.

Recommended Pick: Purdue. I don't like being so chalky but I have to go with the home side. Rather than the spread play I might tack them on as an ML play to another bet I like.

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