NCAAB betting: A glimpse of the Madness to come

This is a great weekend for college hoops. Some of the smaller conferences have already started their tournaments, most of which only see the winner get an NCAA bid so there is high drama, and we have some great games from the big boy leagues. I love mid-major action but since those games are still a little off the beaten path I am going to focus on the latter here. 

The bulk of these are on Saturday but there is one tilt on Sunday that stands out. 

Saturday, March 9

Kentucky Wildcats @ Tennessee Volunteers
4 p.m. ET, Paramount +
Spread: Tennessee -8.5 

The Vols are very good. They are consistently strong on defense and have a great go-to scorer this season in transfer Dalton Knecht. They are heavy favorites in this one because they really took it to the Wildcats when they met earlier in the season, scoring a season-high 103 points. Kentucky has been up and down all season long but they are just as talented as any team in the country, truly. They are just so young in so many spots.

Recommended Pick: Kentucky. This is a lot of points against a UK team that can get back in games with the three if need be. They make 40% behind the arc, which is third in the nation. 

Kansas Jayhawks @ Houston Cougars
4 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Houston -8.5

For the second weekend in a row, Kansas is a road underdog. I don't think that has happened this century. Either way, with wing Kevin McCullar questionable it is hard to have a lot of confidence in the Jayhawks to beat an elite Houston team on the road. They have been an underdog four times this season and won only once. This is a good team but they do not have depth and I am not sure they are up for a gritty game. 

Recommended Pick: Houston. The last time Houston lost was at KU. I don't like having to spot so many points to a quality team so I will tease but Houston's tenacity gets them a high-quality win. 

North Carolina Tar Heels @ Duke Blue Devils
6:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Duke -4.5

Guess who has the best defense in conference play in the ACC. Virginia, right? Nope, that would be North Carolina. That is one of the many reasons they are up on Duke by a game in the league, with one to play. When they met in Chapel Hill North Carolina won comfortably but the Blue Devils are favored at home. Ever since that game at Wake Forest where they got stormed off the court, they have been playing really strong ball.

Recommended Pick: North Carolina: I like the very veteran Tar Heels to feel strangely comfortable at Cameron Indoor. 

Creighton Bluejays @ Villanova Wildcats
2:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Spread: Creighton -1.5

Villanova has some quality wins this season, including at Creighton, where they won in overtime. This is an experienced team but they have not been able to avoid inconsistency. At this point, while a victory would help them I think they need to win the Big East Tournament if they want to advance. Creighton has underperformed too but you can see why they would be a team that nobody wants to play later this month. They have all of the requirements for a deep run. 

Recommended Pick: Creighton. Both of these teams have disappointed bettors this season but this is a prime spot for the Bluejays who are 7-2 ATS as road favs. 

Sunday, March 10 

Wisconsin Badgers @ Purdue Boilermakers
12:30 p.m. ET, Fox
Projected Spread: Purdue -12.5

For Purdue, this game is all about getting the best seed possible. They have been locked into the Tournament for weeks and often look like the best team in the nation. Wisconsin was once 16-4 but at 19-11, they do not have much margin for error. A massive road win, like this one, would pretty much guarantee them a spot but if they could not beat Purdue at home what are their chances of doing so on the road. Maybe they catch Purdue in a flat spot. 

Recommended Pick: Wisconsin. The Badgers are not going to press for an upset but they will probably show some guts and keep it under double-digit. There is enough talent there.