NCAAB betting: Top games for the weekend

Last week was a breakthrough with a 4-1 record. Only Houston came up short (at Kansas, so not a shocker). I do not want to jinx anything but every one of these college hoops betting previews has been profitable so far this season. (Too late!)

This weekend, all five of the games below are on Saturday. The Super Bowl is on Sunday and there were just not many intriguing games on Sunday to choose from. I am not a big pre-game guy so I will probably have some early hoops action anyway.

Arizona Wildcats @ Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, Feb. 10, 10 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Colorado -1.5

The Wildcats just had a thrilling OT win at Utah, which makes them a prime candidate for a letdown loss against Colorado. This is a really big game for the Buffs, who are second in efficiency ranking in the Pac-12, but need to bank some wins to get NCAA at large worthy. Arizona is the best chance to do that and it is not a surprise that the Buffs are favored at home. They have not lost at home all season and in wing Cody Williams, they might have the best player on the floor. The talent on Colorado is underrated and they can match Arizona's size. They will not get pushed around.
 
Recommended Pick: It is hard to move off the Buffs who need this game more and are at home. They have enough talent to get it too.

Illinois Fighting Illini @ Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, Feb. 10, 2 p.m. ET, Paramount+
Spread: Michigan State -2.5

This is another game where the home side has a lot more to gain. Michigan State already has nine losses on the season and another loss puts them under .500 in the league. Illinois might be the better team, but I like the spot for the Spartans. They have urgency and experience and head coach Tom Izzo usually has his team improving throughout the season. This one will be very close though, just like when Illinois won by three points in Champaign.
 
Recommended Pick: MSU, I might go Moneyline to keep it simple. 

Gonzaga Bulldogs @ Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, Feb. 10, 4 p.m. ET, Fubo, Paramount+
Spread: Kentucky -4.5

This game is massive for Gonzaga. Even with a win I am not sure they are a shoo-in for the NCAAs, the way they have been in the past. Either way, I like a team whose top four players are juniors and seniors being able to perform well on the road, even in a hostile place like Kentucky. This is Gonzaga's best chance to show what they are capable of and I think the coach will have them ready. It might even be do or die. 

Recommended Pick: Gonzaga, I might wait until closer hoping to get another point as I expect Kentucky will be the more popular side. 

Baylor Bears @ Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, Feb. 10, 6 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Kansas -6.5

The Bears are one of three teams with just three losses in the Big 12. Kansas is not one of those, so there is a lot at stake here. Kansas has been up and down and they burned me with one of their best games of the season last weekend against Houston. The line is a little rich, but I am leaning into their experience here, similar to Gonzaga, but even more comfortable with them being at home. Baylor will have a chance to even things up in a few weeks' time. 

Recommended Pick: Kansas, though I might tease it down. I am hoping for Baylor market interest.

TCU Horned Frogs @ Iowa State Cyclones
Saturday, Feb. 10, 2 p.m. ET, ESPN
Spread: Iowa State -6.5

This is the second meeting between these teams. ISU nipped the Horned Frogs by a point on the road earlier this season. The Cyclones are giving up just 55 ppg at Hilton Coliseum this season and that is why they are the home play on Saturday. TCU has dramatic home-road splits and if they could not quite get it done in Fort Worth, I am not seeing where they get the extra production on Saturday to keep this one close.  

Recommended Pick: Iowa State, similar to Kansas above, I might look to tease this line, don't let it get higher.