NCAAB betting: Which teams are worth your money (or not)?

I hope your Super Bowl bets were profitable! If you are longing for more football betting, don't worry, the NFL Draft will be here soon enough.

To tide you over I have some thoughts and observations from the college basketball season so far, as well as some bets to consider making (or not making).

My Observations

A repeat champion is very possible

UConn might not have been the favorite to win it all last season but they found their stride and then finished strong (they dominated in the Tournament). The same thing could be happening this season, though they are definitely a little less in the shadows as the defending champ and currently ranked No. 1 in the AP Poll. A top seed seems very likely and they have a nice mix of players who were on last year's team and some new talent to lean on. 

There might be just a few elite teams

KenPom is considered by many to be the top metric for evaluating programs. Right now Houston is at the top, followed by Purdue and Connecticut. The Huskies and Boilermakers are at the top of the polls and then after that, it really depends on who has lost most recently. Purdue has the stigma of losing in the opening round last season but with the likely Player of the Year in Zach Edey and a more experienced roster they look poised for a big rebound. There are only four teams that are in the top 15 in both offensive and defensive efficiency — UConn, Purdue, Arizona, Auburn, and Tennessee. 

Your bracket might be busted early

This season, there have been a number of ranked teams losing on the road to unranked teams. Most recently, Auburn and Tennessee above (though they are hardly the only victims), both did so on Saturday. Guess what we see in the Tournament every year, ranked teams having to play in hostile environments against unranked teams. Now, some of those are not true road games, but with thinner margins between teams, more upsets happen. UConn and Purdue have four combined losses, three met this criteria. 

Some Good Values Right Now

Duke to win the ACC (+500)
Virginia to win the ACC (+800)

A few weeks back I wrote about North Carolina and Duke and the ACC Championship. UNC got the home win over the Blue Devils (as expected), but then they lost a game unexpectedly, opening things up. Now each of these teams has games against each other down the stretch. UNC is still in the pole position but I would rather have these two programs in my portfolio at these prices than UNC at -450. 

Dayton to win the A-10 (+120)

If you are into anything other than W-L records, then Dayton is the best team in the A-10, and it is not even close (they are 22 at KenPom and Richmond is 80). However, they are currently in second place in the league and +120 to win it (compared to +100 for Richmond, who they lost to). I am willing to make a small play that the best team in the league can close strong and bridge the gap. The Spiders still have four road games to close the year. 

South Florida to win the AAC (+250)

The Bulls have been one of the great surprises of the season. They are 10-1 in the AAC thanks to the league's best defense. That puts them a game ahead of FAU, who we probably would not even be talking about had they gone out in the second round last year like they were supposed to. The Owls are -105 to take the AAC in their first year there but they are a game behind the Bulls right now, have to go to USF, and more importantly, have not been what we were expecting. I don't see how they make up the distance unless the Bulls collapse.