NCAAB futures: Purdue looking for more than another Big Ten title

The Big Ten has not measured up on the postseason over the last few years. However, this is still one of the best leagues in America and last year's champ, Purdue, will be looking to show their NCAA flameout was a fluke, but their winning the league was not. 

Michigan State has a Hall of Fame coach in Tom Izzo, and it looks like he has his most talented team in years. Maybe that is enough to bridge the gap with the Boilermakers (Purdue won the league by three games last season). 

The Big 12 is generally considered the toughest league but the Big Ten can make a case in terms of overall competitiveness. There are just 14 teams in the league and last season, all the teams down to 12th place Nebraska won at least nine league games. 

Here is a look at the league in 2023-24:

2023-24 Big Ten Futures

Purdue +200
Michigan State +300
Maryland +700
Illinois +800
Indiana +1200
Ohio State +1500
Wisconsin +1500
Northwestern +2500
Michigan +3000
Nebraska +4000
Iowa +4000
Rutgers +5000
Penn State +8000
Minnesota +15000

Purdue is looking to become Virginia 2.0, following up an NCAA Tourney disaster with a championship run. There is really no reason they can't, not with center Zach Edey, the most dominant player in the nation back in the middle. That +200 looks all right as a payoff, especially because the Big Ten does not have a lot of elite teams to take the title away from them.  

Michigan State is built opposite to the Boilermakers. They do not have the size and skill inside of Purdue but the best backcourt in the conference could be good enough for them to win the league this season. They only have to play Purdue once and it is in early March. Maybe we already know who is the winner by then or maybe it is the Game of the Year. 

Most polls have Purdue and MSU in the Top 5 right now. After that, there is a pretty big gap but that is not necessarily reflected in the odds. Maryland should be good once again and head coach Kevin Willard should be that much more comfortable in his second season in the league. It is too bad they could not hold onto wing Hakim Hart. If they had they would be really dangerous. Consistency is the thing for the Terps (seemingly every season). 

The same could be said for Illinois. Wing Terrence Shannon Jr. is talented enough to lead the league in scoring and big man Coleman Hawkins is very versatile but they need more. This is an experienced team that will be a threat every night but it is hard to see how they find a level to win a grinding regular season even though postseason success could be there. +800 is a nice payoff but I think you need more to make a play with Illinois.

The pricing in this league feels a little off after those top two teams, who are rated so highly at this point. It is very bunched up in the middle and I think there should have been a bigger gap after MSU in the odds table. If you can find Maryland or Illinois at +1000 or better they might be worth a shot. At their current prices less so. 

Programs like Indiana, which is supposed to be a "blueblood," are not really going to be much of a factor this season. Ditto for the likes of Iowa, Northwestern, and Penn State. All of those teams outperformed last season but this year does not look as promising in terms of regular season or post-season success. Perhaps this year there is a more normal distribution of wins throughout the league.

Best Bet: Purdue
Sleeper: Illinois

I do not see any teams beyond the top four being a real factor in the race for the title this season.