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The San Diego State Aztecs staged a massive comeback over the Colorado State Rams to notch a key conference victory on Tuesday. Meanwhile, their next opponent — the New Mexico Lobos — beat Nevada on via a game-winning shot on that same night.
San Diego State is a great defensive team, but has struggled to find its offensive identity at times. New Mexico is much more balanced. The Lobos have solid defense on the perimeter, can run at a quick pace, score inside and should be able to keep this game close.
So, let's preview the matchup and make a New Mexico vs. San Diego State pick.
New Mexico vs. San Diego State Odds
Friday, Feb. 16, 10 p.m. ET, FS1
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| +5.5 -110 |
153 -110o / -110u |
+180 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
| -5.5 -110 |
153 -110o / -110u |
-220 |
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAB odds here.
New Mexico Lobos
The Lobos love to attack and rank 33rd in the nation in frequency of attacking the rim, per Shot Quality. Luckily for them, this is a favorable matchup because San Diego State, despite having a good defense, struggles to defend the rim. The Aztecs rank 346th in points per possession at the rim, so expect the Lobos to take advantage.
New Mexico also ranks 36th in defensive turnover rate. Offensively, the Lobos only turn it over 14% of the time, so that's an area where they often have a considerable advantage. New Mexico isn't the most efficient team in transition, but their quick pace allows them to often manufacture fast breaks.
New Mexico is also the better rebounding team in this matchup. The Lobos rank at least 97th in both offensive and defensive rebounding, largely thanks to the efforts of JT Toppin and Nelly Junior Joseph. San Diego State ranks below 100th in rebounding on both ends of the floor. The Aztecs have had a tougher schedule and Jaedon LeDee is a top-notch big, but New Mexico may be able to out-man him.
San Diego State Aztecs
Now, San Diego State isn't a slouch. The Aztecs shoot more 3s than the Lobos, albeit at a less efficient rate (32.6% vs. 35.3%). New Mexico is holding opponents to just 31% shooting from 3-point land and typically doesn't allow too many attempts from deep. The Aztecs rank in the top 35 in Open 3 Rate, per Shot Quality, while the Lobos rank in the top 100 on defense.
So, San Diego State can do some damage from deep, but New Mexico should have the defensive antidote more often than not. In addition, the Aztecs give up a ton of 3-point chances, so New Mexico could have an equalizer occasionally from outside.
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New Mexico vs. San Diego State
Betting Pick & Prediction
New Mexico could certainly lose this game on the road against arguably the best team in the Mountain West, but 5.5 points is far too many after the Lobos beat the Aztecs by 18 a month ago. New Mexico will dominate in transition and can score at will against a team with issues guarding the paint. Take the Lobos at +5.5 and back them to -3.5.
Pick: New Mexico +5.5 | Play to 3.5
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