Ohio State Buckeyes guard Bruce Thornton (2) dribbles the ball in the first half of the NCAA game at Value City Arena on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State’s Updated NCAA Tournament Outlook

Originally posted on Stadium Rant | By Noah Adkins | Last updated Feb 24, 2026 2:50 PM ET

The Ohio State Buckeyes find themselves squarely on the bubble once again. With just four games remaining before the Big Ten Tournament, Jake Diebler and his team have some work to do if they want to return to the Big Dance.

What’s Left For Ohio State

The Buckeyes have two road games and two home contests remaining. They will travel to Iowa City on Feb. 25 to face the Iowa Hawkeyes before returning to Columbus for a matchup against the No. 8 Purdue Boilermakers on March 1.

Ohio State then heads to State College to take on the Penn State Nittany Lions on March 4. The regular season concludes March 7 at home against the Indiana Hoosiers.

The final four games include two Quad 1 opportunities and two Quad 2 matchups. Indiana currently ranks 36th in the NET, meaning that game could shift to Quad 1 status by March 7 if the Hoosiers continue to win.

What Ohio State Needs To Do

Feb 14, 2026; Nashville, Tennessee, USA; Ohio State Buckeyes forward Amare Bynum (1) drives to the basket against the Virginia Cavaliers during the first half at Bridgestone Arena. Mandatory Credit: Steve Roberts-Imagn Images

The Buckeyes’ magic number entering the Big Ten Tournament appears to be 20 wins. Sitting at 17 victories, a 3-1 finish in the regular season would get them there.

If Ohio State closes 3-1 and adds a win in the Big Ten Tournament, it should be in a strong position on Selection Sunday.

A 2-2 finish would keep the Buckeyes in the conversation, but they would likely need at least two conference tournament wins to feel secure.

A 1-3 stretch would leave little margin for error. In that scenario, Ohio State would likely need a deep run in the Big Ten Tournament, though that may not even be enough.

End Of My Ohio State Buckeyes Rant

Ohio State Buckeyes head coach Jake Diebler reacts in the first half of the NCAA game at Value City Arena on Tuesday, Feb. 17, 2026 in Columbus, Ohio.

Ohio State currently sits at 0-9 in Quad 1 games, but there is still a path forward. The Buckeyes have two, and possibly three, Quad 1 opportunities remaining before the Big Ten Tournament.

In addition, their wins over the Northwestern Wildcats and Wisconsin Badgers are on the verge of becoming Quad 1 victories. If those teams close the regular season strong, Ohio State could add two more Quad 1 wins to its résumé.

In a matter of weeks, the Buckeyes could realistically go from zero Quad 1 wins to three or four if results break their way.

Ultimately, Ohio State controls its own destiny down the stretch. If the Buckeyes get healthy and perform to their potential, a 3-1 finish is very realistic. Whether they can capitalize and return to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2022 remains to be seen.

This article first appeared on Stadium Rant and was syndicated with permission.

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