Predicting Houston basketball’s 2026 National Championship chances

Departures: G LJ Cryer, F J’Wan Roberts, F Ja’Vier Francis, G Mylik Wilson, F Terrance Arceneaux

Likely rotation returners: F Joseph Tugler, G Emanuel Sharp

Unsure about: G Milos Uzan

Houston is losing a lot of senior leadership in LJ Cryer and J’Wan Roberts especially, and that will be very difficult to replace going into next season. On top of that, Cryer was the best scorer on the team and one of the best shotmakers in the Big 12 while Roberts provided the Cougars with a fallback option in the post, so Sampson has to find a way to replenish that scoring punch.

Part of that should come from a bigger role for Emanuel Sharp, who will likely be back in the red and black. Sharp is newly-famous among casual fans for his pair of turnovers at the end of the national title game, but that sells him short for what he did on the offensive end all season.

Sharp is the ultimate green-light player. He can shoot it from anywhere at any time and is always a threat to get hot, like he did against Tennessee in the Elite Eight. There is a real chance that he can blossom into more of an all-around scorer like Cryer did for this Houston team.

Sampson will also have to replace a trio of defensive aces who didn’t play a ton of minutes, but they did contribute to the team’s identity. Big man Ja’Vier Francis, who had one of the best games of his career in the title game, and reserve guard Mylik Wilson are both out of eligibility, while athletic wing Terrance Arceneaux has entered the transfer portal.

Make no mistake, those losses won’t mean that Houston has any sort of lackluster defense in 2025-26. Its best player on that end, Joseph Tugler, is likely to be back but could also entertain the NBA Draft. However, it would benefit him to return to skill and hone his offensive game a little bit while remaining a terminator on defense, and that would be a huge get for Houston.

The wild card here is Milos Uzan, the transfer point guard who came in and brilliantly replaced program legend Jamal Shead. Uzan came into his own during the season as both a scorer and a playmaker and would instantly be an All Big-12 candidate heading into next season. Uzan would likely be a late first-round pick if he opted to return to school, but he could also raise his stock dramatically with a bigger role on another elite team next season.

Houston also has a pair of four-star recruits, per 247 Sports, from the 2024 class in combo guard Mercy Miller and wing Chase McCarty that could be factors in the rotation.

Offseason additions

Transfer portal additions: G Pop Isaacs (Texas Tech, Creighton), F Kalifa Sakho (Sam Houston State)

Incoming freshmen: 5-star C Chris Cenac Jr., 4-star G Isaiah Harwell, 4-star G Kingston Flemings, 3-star G Bryce Jackson

Sampson didn’t waste much time after that title game loss replacing the scoring hole left by Cryer in the backcourt. Houston landed one of the most explosive scorers in the transfer portal in Pop Isaacs, who has a chance to come in and fill that void. Isaacs averaged m0re than 16 points per game in eight contests this season before going down with a season-ending hip injury at Creighton.

Houston also added former Sam Houston State big man Kalifa Sakho in the transfer portal. Sakho fits the build that Sampson likes in a big man with a 7-foot-4 wingspan, and should seamlessly step in for Francis as a defensive-minded depth big.

The incoming freshman class is what makes this Houston group so intriguing heading into next season. Big man Chris Cenac Jr. is the No. 7 overall recruit and the top-ranked center in the country according to 247 Sports and should immediately be an impact player coming in.

It’s unclear if there will be space in the starting lineup for a pair of four-star guards in Isaiah Harwell and Kingston Flemings, but one of them could earn a starting spot if Uzan opts for the NBA Draft. However, both have the talent to make a big impact even coming off of the bench if needed.

Houston’s outlook for 2025-26

You’ll find the Cougars near the top of many rankings heading into next season and rightfully so. Houston is going to be deep and experienced once again. On top of that, it should have a heavy influx of freshman talent to complement the veterans and add depth to the roster.

Those vets will be very hungry coming into this offseason after such a heartbreaking defeat in the championship game, so it’s reasonable to expect some internal improvement from them as a result.

Sampson has proven time and time again that he is one of the best coaches in the country and usually maximizes the talent that he has on his roster. As a result, he should have this team in position to compete for a Big 12 Championship. With this team coming back, Houston will be one of the rightful national title favorites next year.