The Big 12 Continues to Be A Monster!

This past week has once again proven how tough the Big 12 is as a conference in basketball. Look no further than a team like Houston, which had to play three teams that were ranked in the Top 10 within a seven-day stretch. The Cougars had climbed all the way to No. 2 in the nation, but now they are riding a three-game losing streak into their next game at home against Colorado on Saturday.

We saw Kansas and Iowa State lose games they were favored in last Saturday. Kansas couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn from beyond the arc while Cincinnati made 12 three pointers and dominated the second half of the game in the Bearcats 84-68 win at Allen Fieldhouse in Lawrence, Kansas. Iowa State had what was perceived as a tougher matchup on the road against a Top-25 BYU team, yet the Cyclones were still a slight favorite. The Cougars ended up with a 79-69 win over the Cyclones. The beast of the Big 12 never lets up.

Texas Tech is trying to hang on despite a big injury to its star player, JT Toppin. They have won five of their last six games, their lone loss being at Arizona State, which is 5-10 in conference and 14-14 overall. Maybe the Red Raiders would have beaten the Sun Devils if Toppin didn’t get injured, but it just goes to show that no game is easy when it comes to Big 12 basketball. 

Now Arizona sits in the driver’s seat atop the conference with just three regular-season games left to play. The Wildcats are heavy favorites to win the regular-season conference title at this point. However, Arizona does have the toughest schedule to close the season, with games against Kansas and Iowa State still ahead. 

Kansas, Iowa State, Houston, and Texas Tech are all tied for second place in the Big 12 with a record of 11-4. Since Kansas beat Houston, Texas Tech, and Arizona, plus splitting with Iowa State, the Jayhawks have the tie-breakers currently for the No. 2 seed in the Big 12 tournament. Kansas will have a tough time holding that spot with a game at Arizona this Saturday. A loss would drop Kansas at least one spot, possibly two. On Saturday, Houston will be heavily favored at home against Colorado, and Iowa State hosts Texas Tech, so one of them will take a loss. 

In a very unlikely scenario, but still a scenario nonetheless, Arizona could lose to Kansas and Iowa State in the final three games of the season. That would set up the chance of Arizona, Kansas, Iowa State, and Houston all finishing with a 14-4 conference record. In the case this actually happens, we would have four Big 12 regular-season champions. For Big 12 tournament purposes, there needs to be tie-breakers. 

In that scenario, Kansas and Iowa State would both have swept Arizona and Houston on the season. Since Kansas and Iowa State split their regular-season series, the Jayhawks would end up with the No. 1 seed since they defeated Arizona twice. Iowa State only had one game against Houston and Arizona this season. By virtue of a head-to-head win, Arizona would finish ahead of Houston to be the No. 3 seed, and the Cougars would round out the top four with the No. 4 seed. 

As I look at the standings today and the upcoming schedule, my guess would be that this would be the top four in the final standings in a couple of weeks, ahead of the Big 12 tournament:

1. Arizona
2. Houston
3. Iowa State
4. Kansas

It just feels like Arizona will win its home games against Kansas and Iowa State, and Houston will win out their final three games. Since both Kansas and Iowa State beat Texas Tech, who will likely finish in fifth place, the tie-breaker between Kansas and Iowa State will likely come down to whether UCF or BYU finishes sixth in the Big 12.

If UCF finishes sixth, Iowa State will finish ahead of Kansas due to the Jayhawks loss at UCF early in conference play and the Cyclones’ win over UCF. If BYU finishes sixth, Kansas would finish ahead of Iowa State due to beating BYU earlier in the season and the Cyclones losing to BYU. It looks like BYU has a tougher schedule down the stretch, and UCF has the tie-breaker over BYU if they finish with the same record. I’ll give the Cyclones the edge over Kansas in that tie-breaker scenario to finish with the No. 3 seed, while the Jayhawks can take the No. 4 seed going into the Big 12 tournament. 

Despite only a few games left for each team, there is a lot on the line in the next week and a half. It all starts this Saturday with more top 20 matchups between Arizona and Kansas, as well as Iowa State and Texas Tech. The Big 12 is relentless, and it is going to be an exciting finish to the season.