USC vs. Michigan: Preview, Prediction, Betting Odds

Betting Odds

According to FanDuel Sportsbooks, the No.24 USC Trojans are 21.5-point underdogs to the No.2 Michigan Wolverines. The moneyline for USC is +2000 and the point spread 169.5.

Can the Trojans’ Bigs Hold Up?

This game starts in the paint. Michigan’s frontcourt has overwhelmed opponents all season, and USC’s ability to stay competitive hinges on how its bigs respond. Ezra Ausar and Jacob Cofie have been pillars early in the year. Ausar enters averaging 17.1 points per game and has emerged as USC’s most reliable scoring option inside and out. Cofie brings the defensive edge, posting 2.1 blocks and 1.1 steals per game while anchoring the Trojans’ rim protection.

The wildcard may be Gabe Dynes. Dynes is coming off a season-high 16-point performance and gives USC added size and finishing ability against Michigan’s length. His ability to defend without fouling and convert around the rim, could determine whether USC can avoid getting buried early.

Michigan counters with one of the nation’s best frontcourt trios in senior forward Yaxel Lendeborg, sophomore forward Morez Johnson Jr., and junior center Aday Mara. All three average double figures, all three control the glass averaging six or more rebounds per game, and they all work hard to protect the rim defensively. This is the stiffest interior test USC has faced all season. If USC’s bigs can simply hold the line, the Trojans give themselves a chance to stay within striking distance.

What Will USC Get From Kam Woods Against Real Competition?

Friday also marks the first true evaluation point for Robert Morris transer Kam Woods in a high-level setting. In his USC debut against UC Santa Cruz, Woods logged 22 minutes off the bench and filled the box score everywhere except scoring finishing with six rebounds, six assists, three steals, and constant pressure on the ball. Even without scoring it was clear that that the former Horizon League standout could hang alongside Big Ten talent, but questions still remain regarding how much he will factor into the rotation.

Against the pace and physicality of the Wolverines, it will be interesting to see how much he plays in comparison to Jordan Marsh and Ryan Cornish. With the injuries to Rodney Rice, Amarion Dickerson and Alijah Arenas depleting the backcourt depth, Marsh and Cornish have picked up the slack, but the upside of Woods as both a facilitator and point of attack defender could get him real minutes in this high-profile matchup.

This is the kind of game early in Woods tenure with the Trojans that could set the tone for how he used as USC progresses deeper into Big Ten play. Best for him to not squander the opportunity to show out on the big stage.

Michigan's Dominance is Undeniable

The Wolverines enter 12-0, leading the nation with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points per game. They’ve scored at least 100 points seven times and rank No. 1 in both NET and KenPom. Led by Lendenborg who is a projected top-15 NBA Draft pick, this Michigan team that has not played in a close game since early November, growing accustomed to burying teams early and often.

For USC to stand a chance in this matchup they first must outlast the early haymakers of the Wolverines and keep things close down the stretch. As two teams that haven't been forced into too many clutch situations so far this season, it will then come down to who's star scorer can takeover best with the game on the line: Chad Baker-Mazara or Yaxel Lenderborg?

This will be a reality check for USC, which cruised through non-conference play but now faces one of the last unbeaten teams in Division I. Michigan coach Dusty May has the Wolverines playing good basketball and Michigan's home crowd is likely to be rowdy as they look to land their first win of the new year. The Trojans have an uphill climb ahead of them to pull off the upset, but pulling off a big win in this one would easily hand them one of the best resume boosting wins of the season thus far.

USC vs. Michigan Prediction

The No.24 USC Trojans will lose on the road to the Michigan Wolverines, 84-77.

• Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. 
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