Virginia Men's Basketball: Way Too Early Preview and Predictions For Major Non-Conference Opponents

Northwestern shouldn’t be sitting at the bottom of the Big Ten, but it might be tough sledding for 12th-year head coach Chris Collins. The Wildcats are used to overachieving, and they’ll lean heavily on senior Nick Martinelli, a high-volume, high-usage forward who averaged 20.5 PPG last season. He is a first-team All-American candidate. The supporting cast must step up for Collins, as the roster will feature some unproven guys staring down a boost in minutes. Sophomore KJ Windham (5.6 PPG) has breakout written all over him. After dynamic guard Brooks Barnhizer suffered a season-ending injury in February, Windham played six 25-plus-minute games and notched two 20-point performances. 

Northwestern is prone to surprise. While this team will go as far as Martinelli takes them, they’re also coached by one of the “best with less” minds in college basketball in Collins. However, I’ll favor the ‘Hoos in this matchup thanks to their assortment of experience, shooting, and depth built largely through the transfer portal and international recruiting ranks. In terms of storylines, two highly-touted center prospects — Northwestern’s Arrinten Page and Virginia’s Ugonna Onyenso — will try to prove their worth after underperforming at each of their last two schools. Both are hopeful that the pieces will come together in 2025-26.

Prediction: Virginia 79, Northwestern 76

11/23: Virginia vs. Butler, Greenbrier Tip-Off*

Butler needs an escape from Big East purgatory. The Bulldogs have not made the NCAA Tournament since 2018 and have endured five consecutive losing seasons in the Big East. Coach Thad Matta, formerly of Ohio State, has assembled some underrated transfer talent in his fourth season in Indianapolis, led by Gonzaga’s Michael Ajayi (6.5 PPG, 5.4 RPG) and Purdue-Fort Wayne’s Jalen Jackson (19.4 PPG). The Bulldog-to-Bulldog transfer’s stock tumbled after a down year in Spokane, but he should play heavy minutes as a lengthy, 6'7 forward with high potential. Higher-profile teams might end up kicking themselves for overlooking Ajayi. Once a Virginia target and four-star prospect, sophomore wing Jamie Kaiser redshirted last season and could blossom with some confidence in his game.

Despite the roster changes, I don’t think Butler will make substantial progress under Matta. It would behoove the Bulldogs to not make a coaching change if things don’t improve in year four. Plenty depends on the instant impact of Ajayi, Jackson and Kaiser, while lone returning starter Finley Bizjack could light up scoreboards after finishing last season with a 30-point barrage against Boise State. Virginia should take care of business in this contest. Losses to Northwestern or Butler could end up as albatrosses around the neck for Virginia’s at-large candidacy, if that situation arises.

Prediction: Virginia 83, Butler 69

12/3: Virginia at Texas, ACC/SEC Challenge

The rubber meets the road in Austin. While Texas isn’t entirely fearsome on paper, this is still a road outing against one of the more accomplished and polarizing college coaches, Sean Miller. The Longhorns will look for their next go-to scorer after the departure of freshman phenom Tre Johnson (19.9 PPG), and they might struggle to replace him directly. Two of three returners at guard — Tramon Mark (16.2 PPG in 2023-24), Jordan Pope (11.0 PPG), Chendall Weaver (6.4 PPG, 4.9 RPG) — should start, and wing Dailyn Swain (11.0 PPG, 5.5 RPG) followed Miller from Xavier as one of the higher-potential players in the portal. There’s some serious depth at Texas. I wonder, though, whether Miller can put together an NCAA Tournament-ready roster in his first year at the helm. Will he regret leaving a basketball-heavy school in Cincinnati for a football-first school that hasn’t always lived up to expectations?

A hostile road environment in the Moody Center could be the setback that Coach Ryan Odom needs to galvanize his roster for tougher non-conference games ahead. Virginia definitely has the muscle to compete with Texas at their place, but I foresee a close loss in the ACC/SEC Challenge. Texas’ size and lineup versatility could frustrate the ‘Hoos, who will feasibly ease freshmen Chance Mallory, Johann Grünloh and Silas Barksdale into more significant roles as the season progresses. If the ‘Hoos do fall, I wouldn’t worry too much about the result.

Prediction: Texas 68, Virginia 63

12/6: Virginia vs. Dayton*

Virginia will play Dayton for the second time since the 2018 Battle 4 Atlantis, a matchup in which the ‘Hoos won, 66-59. The Flyers have since logged five 22-plus win seasons and were tracking for a No. 1 seed in the COVID-cancelled NCAA Tournament in 2020. Now, the Flyers have lost four of five starters and only return third-leading scorer Javon Bennett (11.6 PPG), yet potential abounds. A collection of portalers led by Cal State Northridge forward Keonte Jones (13.1 PPG, 9.0 RPG) should lead the charge as Dayton overhauls once again. Jones, a prolific rebounder for his size, could be a double-double machine and frequent mismatch. Keep an eye out for 7’1 center Amaël L’Etang (7.1 PPG, 4.3 RPG), a sophomore who burst onto the scene at Dayton last season and earned All-Rookie honors in the Atlantic Ten. It would be unwise to doubt Grant’s ability to tinker with a lineup that already possesses some weapons on paper. 

Although Dayton’s offseason holds promise, I still believe that Virginia should be head and shoulders above the Flyers at this juncture. The ‘Hoos brought in one of the most well-rounded recruiting classes in the country, featuring a four-year professional from Belgium, a hometown kid with confidence and a three-level scorer who made a living on the West Coast. With a strong alumni base in Charlotte to boot, Virginia will be well-positioned to overwhelm the Flyers in a neutral site contest. Odom has experience in the Spectrum Center, too…

Prediction: Virginia 73, Dayton 64

12/20: Virginia vs. Maryland

Firstly, why is this game taking place during winter break? We have myriad storylines to follow in this one: senior forward Elijah Saunders returning to John Paul Jones Arena after his transfer to Maryland from Virginia, Coach Buzz Williams’ background as the former head at Virginia Tech, and a rivalry hearkening back to the days of the simpler ACC. To deprive out-of-state students of this matchup is a crime! Well, I assume they could return, but it’s on Christmas’ door. Williams has filled in for the shunned Kevin Willard, while Odom takes Bennett’s place. Both coaches have revamped their rosters via the portal and have already gathered some valuable pieces.

Saunders should return to Charlottesville December 20th as a starter at power forward. He’ll be accompanied by another “failed” transfer in junior point guard Myles Rice (I’m referring back to Michael Ajayi), once a shiny prize following his dynamic freshman campaign with Washington State two years ago. Now, he’ll hope that expectations away from Indiana will allow him to regain his form. Two of Williams’ presumed senior starters will have played for him at Texas A&M — forward Solomon Washington (4.7 PPG, 5.1 RPG) and center Pharrel Payne (10.4 PPG, 5.1 RPG). The latter scored 51 points across the Aggies’ two games in the NCAA Tournament.

Maryland’s starting five will not be as potent as the “Crab Five” under Willard, yet the team will benefit from improved depth. A top-40 recruit in freshman guard Darius Adams decommitted from UConn to join Williams, while high-flying guard and Kansas transfer Rakease Passmore still has time to shine in his college career as a sophomore in College Park. The ‘Hoos defend their home court well, though. Odom will not let Williams — now associated with two Virginia rivals — get away unscathed. 

2/14: Virginia vs. Ohio State, Nashville Hoops Showdown*

Ohio State might be the trickiest opponent of Virginia’s relatively lenient non-conference schedule. Having missed the NCAA Tournament in 2024-25, the Buckeyes should return with a vengeance under the leadership of senior point guard Bruce Thornton (17.7 PPG, 4.6 APG) — a second-team All-Big Ten selection. Coach Jake Diebler retains two core talents alongside Thornton in sophomore guard Juni Mobley Jr. (13.0 PPG) and junior forward Devin Royal (13.7 PPG, 6.9 RPG). Mobley shot 38.5% from three-point range on high volume. Ohio State now possesses one of those rare rosters with more returners than newcomers in the starting five, and the two vacancies will likely belong to the frontcourt tandem of fifth-year forward Brandon Noel (19.0 PPG, 7.7 RPG) and senior center Christoph Tilly (12.5 PPG, 4.9 RPG) — transfers from Wright State and Santa Clara, respectively. I can only poke holes in their depth.

Ohio State should make the NCAA Tournament in 2025-26. Virginia will have chances to move the needle against two Big Ten teams in the non-conference, and a win over the Buckeyes will presumably carry weight if the Cavaliers are flirting with the bubble. Last year’s Ohio State throttled then-No. 4 Kentucky and stole victory away from No. 11 Purdue, 73-70, at the place where dreams go to die. Three of their top four scorers stayed on board this offseason and will have high hopes to return to the Big Dance. I believe that Virginia will fall in a nailbiter in Nashville; akin to the Texas prediction, a close loss to Ohio State shouldn’t reflect poorly.

Prediction: Ohio State 85, Virginia 83