Why Tar Heels' Hubert Davis Cannot Afford Slow Start

Hubert Davis’ tenure at North Carolina has been a roller coaster, marked by soaring highs and frustrating lows.

In his first season as head coach, Davis guided his alma mater to its 21st Final Four appearance and a national runner-up finish in the 2021–22 season. That run was highlighted by North Carolina’s upset of Duke to spoil head coach Mike Krzyzewski’s farewell at Cameron Indoor Stadium — followed by an even bigger win over the Blue Devils in the Final Four at the Caesars Superdome in New Orleans.

It was the first time the programs had faced each other in the NCAA Tournament, and it marked the final game of Krzyzewski’s storied career.

However, the program has been on uneven ground since that moment.

The following year, Carolina entered the season as the preseason No. 1 team in the country. Despite the lofty expectations, the Tar Heels stumbled to a 20–13 record and failed to make the NCAA Tournament. They rebounded in the 2023–24 campaign with a 29–8 mark, an ACC regular season title and a Sweet 16 appearance. But momentum stalled again in 2024–25, as the Tar Heels fell to 23–14 and suffered a first-round exit at the hands of Ole Miss in the NCAA Tournament.

As the 2025–26 season approaches, North Carolina will once again face high expectations — but this time, it feels different. For Davis, this is widely viewed as a make-or-break year. And it starts immediately.

The Tar Heels open with a marquee home matchup against fellow blue blood Kansas. The Jayhawks feature freshman guard Darryn Peterson, a projected No. 1 pick in the 2026 NBA Draft.

Their next major test comes on Nov. 27 against Michigan State in the Fort Myers Tip-Off during Thanksgiving weekend.

Just six days later, Carolina travels to Rupp Arena to face a Kentucky squad led by junior Otega Oweh in front of 23,500 fans.

The good news? The Heels get a preseason tune-up against BYU. But with a brutal nonconference slate, they must win at least two of those three high-profile games. Dropping multiple contests early could jeopardize their confidence going into conference play.

Every ACC fan knows how brutal the conference can be.

Duke is still Duke, even with Jon Scheyer on the sidelines. Louisville appears to be back to its old self. SMU had a strong transition year in its first ACC season, finishing 24-11 overall and 13-7 in conference play. Even NC State looks dangerous, with Will Wade — one of the top program builders in college basketball — entering his first season as the Wolfpack’s head coach.

The pressure on Davis has never been greater, and the margin for error has never been slimmer. With a challenging schedule, a reloaded ACC, and a restless fanbase expecting a return to national prominence, Davis enters the 2025–26 season with everything on the line. 

He’s shown he can reach the mountaintop — now he must prove he can stay there. Anything less than a deep March run could raise serious questions about the future direction of North Carolina basketball under his leadership.