Wisconsin Badgers basketball in position to snap disappointing 9-year drought in March Madness

With a new offensive profile and a knack for over-performing preseason expectations, the Badgers aren't sneaking up on anybody in 2025-26

Wisconsin labeled a Sweet 16 threat

ESPN writers Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf released a tier list ranking 80 NCAA Men's Basketball teams based on their NCAA Tournament potential.

Wisconsin landed in the third of 10 tiers: Second-weekend threats

National Championship Favorites and Final Four Contenders are the top two tiers, respectively.

Borzello and Medcalf point out that some of the 12 teams in the tier would play their way into being Final Four contenders, but at this point, each group has more uncertainty or possible holes than those in Tier 2.

Wisconsin hasn't made it past the Round of 32 since Gard's first full season at the helm back in 2016-17 season. The Badgers have made the tournament in five of the seven full seasons since, earning a five-seed or better in all but one of those tournaments.

They've lost to a double-digit seed three times.

Reasons for optimism about a Sweet 16 berth in the 2025-26 season are clear. But so are the weaknesses.

Wisconsin has an abundance of three-point shooters. Four of the five Badgers players who started Friday's exhibition loss to Oklahoma shot over 35 percent from three-point range last season.

The exception is John Blackwell, who shot 32.2 percent from distance in 2024-25. Blackwell has noted becoming a more consistent shooter was one of the primary pieces of feedback he got during the NBA Draft process. He also shot 45.5 percent from three as a freshman.

Oklahoma Sooners head coach Porter Moser noted the threat Wisconsin's balanced offensive attack and versatile frontcourt provides.

"Wisconsin's hard to guard. I mean, there's Blackwell, (Nick) Boyd, and then their big (Nolan) Winters, and then (Austin) Rapp," Moser said. "It's just a different dynamic with guys that big that can shoot it."

And as much promise as the Badgers' offense showed in the 84-83 loss, the defense certainly has room to grow.

Oklahoma shot 52 percent from the field and 55 percent from three-point range as Wisconsin's defense bled open looks.

The defensive shortcomings were perhaps more drastic than anticipated, but it wasn't exactly a surprise to see Wisconsin have some work to do on that end. That's probably the question mark that prevents them from starting the year as one of Borzello and Medcalf's Final Four contenders.

"In order to reach our potential, we're gonna have to be really good defensively," Gard said after their Red/White scrimmage. "If it's just one side of the ball, one side of the court, then we're not gonna accomplish what we want to accomplish."

Even though the Badgers defense may have been exposed at times during the exhibition at Fiserv Forum, it was a welcomed exposure, as it gives the coaching staff and players game film to analyze and a measuring stick of where they are and where they want to be.

Though they definitely have room to grow, something Gard acknowledged after the one-point loss, Wisconsin is directing that growth with a clear goal in mind — one that would push them into Tier 2 of ESPN's rankings.

"We were still, last year, third in the league defensively, I think 24th, nationally," Gard said at Big Ten Media day in early October. "That needs to climb toward the top 10, where we'd like to have that and keep the offense toward the top 10, then you've got a legit shot to play deep into March."