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15 schools that can throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff
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15 schools that can throw a wrench into the College Football Playoff

Last year ... for the second straight season ... we got a true party crasher into the College Football Playoff. After Cincinnati became the first Group of 5 school to reach college football's final four in 2021, TCU reached the national championship game despite no one picking them to get anywhere near there before the 2022 season began. TCU even lost their conference championship game and still received a No. 3 seed, then beat Michigan in the semifinal before getting thrashed by Georgia in the title game.

With one year remaining under the current format, this is the last chance for a school to really crash that party. Beginning next year,12 teams will make the playoff with one of those guaranteed to be a Group of 5 school, so the shock of a team off the radar beating the odds for a playoff spot will be gone.

This list isn't just about teams who could find themselves in the Playoff as some schools could just be a pest and ruin someone else's playoff hopes. The teams that could pull off that upset that keeps a title contender out of one of those four coveted spots. We've seen a few upsets during the season that have ended another school's Playoff hopes.

Here are 15 schools that could throw a wrench in the 2022 College Football Playoff.

 
Arkansas Razorbacks
Nelson Chenault-USA TODAY Sports

Arkansas is really good, just not good enough to master a brutal schedule and end up in the College Football Playoff. However, they can certainly impact the playoff race as they face several schools with high expectations this season. 

Arkansas returns quarterback K.J. Jefferson, one of the most dangerous dual-threat quarterbacks in the nation, and running back Raheim Sanders, who rushed for 1,443 yards and 10 TDs last season. The Hogs can score -- but will they be able to stop anyone? Last year they gave up 44 points to South Carolina, 49 to Alabama, 52 to BYU and 53 to Kansas. New defensive coordinator Travis Williams will try to turn around that side of the football. We will see as the Razorbacks host BYU and Auburn and travel to Alabama, LSU, Ole Miss and Florida. The Razorbacks were 1-4 in games decided by three points or less. If the defense improves a bit, Arkansas will be a problem. 

 
Colorado Buffaloes
Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports

No, no, no, I'm not buying into Deion Sanders instantly turning a program that was on life support into a College Football Playoff contender, but you can't dismiss the Buffs as a squad that couldn't pull an upset or two during the season. Coach Prime overhauled this roster and this isn't the team that won just one game last season. Colorado opens up the season at national runner-up TCU with a chance to make an instant splash on a national stage. A few weeks later they travel up to Oregon before welcoming USC to Boulder. Two title contenders and Heisman hopefuls. Add in a finale date at Utah and there are ample opportunities for Coach Prime's new team to show off that it's a new era in Colorado. 

 
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Iowa Hawkeyes

Iowa Hawkeyes
Joseph Cress/Iowa City Press-Citizen / USA TODAY NETWORK

No one questions the Iowa defense. They've been an elite unit for a few years now and are great at suffocating offenses. Even with some big names gone, the Hawkeyes will continue to reload on that side of the ball. The joke has been how inept their offense has been. They had seven games last season where they scored 17 or fewer points and scored more than 27 points just once all year. That could change with Michigan transfer Cade McNamara coming in. If you remember, McNamara was the Wolverines signal caller during their College Football Playoff run in 2021. If he can provide Iowa with some sort of a semblance of an offense, the Hawkeyes could win the Big Ten West and give their opponent a test in the conference championship game.

Iowa's schedule is very manageable, with road trips to Penn State and Wisconsin being their most daunting tests. They play in one of the greatest settings in all of college football and own one of the best home-field advantages. Get that offense fixed (or at least functional) and big things could come to Iowa City. 

 
Louisville Cardinals
Scott Utterback/Courier Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Louisville may be the biggest beneficiary of the ACC's decision to scrap their divisional format. Since the Cardinals joined the league, they've been stuck behind Clemson and Florida State in the Atlantic Division and haven't been able to break through for a shot at a league title. That changes this year and Louisville has an instant advantage: no Clemson or Florida State on their schedule in 2023.

The Cards do get Notre Dame and travel to NC State and Pittsburgh but this schedule sets up nicely for them to make a run at reaching the ACC title game. If they can best the Irish and stay undefeated heading into Charlotte, an ACC championship should put them in the playoff. Yeah, easier said than done but the combination of schedule and the buzz around new head coach Jeff Brohm shoves up expectations this season. Louisville returns a great defense and new QB Jack Plummer should fit Brohm's offense nicely. Watch out for running back Jawhar Jordan to have a big season.

 
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NC State Wolfpack

NC State Wolfpack
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

NC State made it on last year's list, but quarterback Devin Leary went down and took a lot of season goals with him. Leary transferred, but the Wolfpack brought in Virginia transfer Brennan Armstrong, the nation's leading passer in 2021. Armstrong joins his former coordinator Robert Anae in Raleigh and should open up and offense that bogged down at times in recent years. NC State has its toughest games -- Notre Dame, Clemson, North Carolina and Miami -- at home in Carter-Finley Stadium. Dave Doeren has perennially had one of the ACC's top defenses and that won't change this season. The ACC ditching divisions helps NC State break through to a conference championship berth, something they couldn't do in the old Atlantic Division. 

 
North Carolina Tar Heels
Bob Donnan-USA TODAY Sports

The Tar Heels have a bona fide Heisman contender in quarterback Drake Maye and arguably the best offensive attack in the ACC. The Heels went 9-1 to start last season before losing their final four games (including the ACC championship to Clemson), putting a damper on a great season. Two main keys for North Carolina: will the offense be as dynamic as it was under offensive coordinator Phil Longo (who left for Wisconsin), and will a defense that hasn't been able to stop anyone be able to improve? Maye and the Heels got into too many shootouts last season that forced the offense to have to be elite on every drive. If they can get that fixed then Carolina has the ability to make noise once again in the ACC. 

The Tar Heels open up against South Carolina in Charlotte and welcome Minnesota a few weeks later. Road games at Clemson and NC State will be huge for the Heels in their quest to return to the ACC championship game and possibly beyond. 

 
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Ole Miss Rebels

Ole Miss Rebels
Annie Rice/Avalanche-Journal / USA TODAY NETWORK

Lane Kiffin feels spry, as he had no problems lobbing grenades all over the place during SEC media day. To means he's confident in his team ... and why shouldn't he? The Rebels return one of the nation's top running backs in Quinshon Judkins and the usually talented roster. The QB battle in Oxford will be one of the more interesting out there. Incumbent Jaxson Dart struggled down the stretch last year and will be pushed by Oklahoma State transfer Spencer Sanders, who didn't transfer to Ole Miss for his COVID year just to hold a clipboard. 

Ole Miss probably won't win the SEC West and earn a playoff spot, but they can impact the race. They travel to Georgia, Alabama, Tulane and Auburn this year and host LSU. The Rebels could play spoiler. 

 
Oregon State Beavers
BRIAN HAYES / STATESMAN JOURNAL / USA TODAY NETWORK

Oregon State was a pleasant surprise last season, going 10-3 and winning the Las Vegas Bowl. The Beavers ability to contend for a Pac-12 title and a playoff spot may hinge on if Clemson transfer DJ Uiagalelei turns around an uneven career. He will have a strong rushing attack led by Damien Martinez and could allow Uiagalelei space to show his athleticism. If the Beavers can beat Utah at home on September 29th, there is a legitimate chance they go 10-0 heading into their final two games -- at Washington and home against Oregon. That final stretch could decide the Pac-12 who plays for the championship. 

 
Penn State Nittany Lions
Jayne Kamin-Oncea-USA TODAY Sports

Penn State can play both roles of being "the wrench". The Nittany Lions certainly are talented enough to compete for a playoff spot, especially if phenom quarterback Drew Allar hits the ground running. They already have a nice young stud at running back in Nicholas Singleton, a tough defense and have one of the deepest offensive lines in the nation. The key to their season will be two dates: October 21st at Ohio State and November 11th against Michigan in Happy Valley. Winning those games would be huge for their playoff hopes, even if they slip up elsewhere (which would be startling since Penn State has a very light schedule). Of course, beating either Ohio State or Michigan could be damaging to those schools as they try to win a Big Ten title and claim their own playoff berth. 

 
South Carolina Gamecocks
Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Maybe the Gamecocks have a chance to be in the playoff chase, but they will more likely play the role of spoiler this season. Quarterback Spencer Rattler started to come on strong at the end of last season which gives South Carolina great momentum going into this year. They'll need it immediately, as they face North Carolina in Charlotte in their opening game. Two weeks later they travel to two-time defending national champion Georgia to face the Dawgs between the hedges. Two weeks after that, they head to Knoxville to take on the Tennessee Volunteers. Talk about a brutal start to the season.

The Gamecocks could knock off one of two of those teams and put a scare in their College Football Playoff hopes. After their bye week, they will host Florida, head to Texas A&M, and then close with home games against Kentucky and Clemson. There's no way South Carolina will get through that gauntlet unscathed (or in a position for a playoff push), but they could pop a couple of those teams and ruin their seasons. 

 
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports

Texas Tech had a successful start to the Joey McGuire era in 2022 and look to keep the momentum going. Former Oregon transfer Tyler Shough injured his shoulder in Week 1 and wouldn't return until late in the season. In the Red Raiders' regular-season finale against Oklahoma he threw for 436 yards and a pair of touchdowns in the win. In their Texas Bowl victory over Ole Miss, Shough threw for 242 yards and rushed for 111, ending the year with four straight wins. 

Do I expect Texas Tech to have a TCU-style run to the College Football Playoff? No, but they are capable. The Big 12 is wide open and Tech has the weapons to be a force in the league. If Shough can finally stay healthy and the defense keeps improving this does look an awful lot like what the Horned Frogs were in 2022. Texas Tech hosts Oregon early on for what could be a table setter for the season. With Texas, TCU and Kansas State on the slate, Tech could really play spoiler. 

 
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Tulane Green Wave

Tulane Green Wave
Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Tulane could follow the path Cincinnati paved back in 2021. Cincinnati used a close loss to Georgia (the program that would go on to win the next two national championships) in the previous season's Peach Bowl to launch into an undefeated season and a playoff berth. Tulane beat USC in last season's outstanding Cotton Bowl and has a schedule set up for a playoff run of its own. Cincinnati needs wins over Power 5 schools during its undefeated season and Tulane has that opportunity with Ole Miss coming to Tulane on September 9th. A win there would be massive for their resume and would springboard the Green Wave for the rest of the season. The AAC schedule gives Tulane opportunities for solid wins, including the season finale against UTSA. 

 
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UTSA Roadrunners

UTSA Roadrunners
Jeremy Reper-USA TODAY Sports

Don't laugh, as things have changed for the Roadrunners this season. UTSA is now a member of the AAC, which puts them in arguably the best Group of 5 conference. They also play at Houston in Week 1 and at Tennessee in Week 4, giving them fantastic opportunities to get resume-stamping wins. Then they head over to New Orleans to take on Tulane in the finale. If they go undefeated and then beat (probably) Tulane again in the AAC title game then they could find themselves with a shot at a playoff bid ... if things elsewhere break right. Even if the Roadrunners can't win them all, they certainly are talented enough to ruin Tennessee's or Tulane's dreams. Quarterback Frank Harris is one of the most exciting players in the Group of 5 and he has a prominent weapon in receiver Zakhari Franklin.

 
Washington Huskies
Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

Washington will be one of the more exciting teams to watch in 2023. Kalen DeBoer did a fantastic job in his first season in Seattle rebuilding the Huskies into a Pac-12 contender. Transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr. was second in the nation in passing yards last year and has two 1,000-yard receivers (Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze) back at his disposal. The Huskies can score with anybody, but the key to a playoff run will be if their defense can stop anyone. If the secondary can step up behind a talented defensive front (led by pass rusher Braylen Trice), Washington can win the Pac-12 and grab a playoff spot. They've got a tough schedule with a brutal stretch in November that sees them travel to USC, host Utah and then head down to Oregon State. That Washington-USC could set up to be quite a showdown. 

 
Wisconsin Badgers
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Luke Fickell is the new sheriff in town and know how to build a College Football Playoff program. His Cincinnati Bearcats' run in 2021 wasn't a fluke -- that team filled the NFL Draft with top talent. Wisconsin hopes to replicate that in Madison and the Badgers already have a lot to worth with. Braelon Allen (1,242 rushing yards last season) is positioned to be the next great Badgers running back and got stronger as the season went along. Phil Longo, the former North Carolina offensive coordinator, may be known for his high flying passing attack but he loves to run the football and creates huge lanes for his backs to exploit. Can new quarterback Tanner Mordecai and his gun-slinging arm from SMU give Wisconsin a true passing threat? It will look as weird as it sounds, but once the Badgers work out the bugs of their offense this could be a dangerous team down the stretch. The Big Ten West is weak and filled with transitioning programs that winning the division is a reasonable goal. Do that and they get either Michigan, Ohio State or Penn State in the championship game ... a perfect opportunity to make a playoff statement. They could also do so on October 28th when Ohio State comes to Camp Randall Stadium. 

Shiloh Carder

Shiloh Carder has over 20 years experience in covering sports for various websites and has been with Yardbarker since 2009. A Charlotte, NC native who now lives outside Cincinnati, he has covered college basketball, college football, NFL and NBA.  You can find him on Twitter/X at @SportzAssassin

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