2025 FCS Football Playoff Bracket Predictions (Nov. 11)

The 2025 FCS Playoff race is in full swing with only two weeks remaining until Selection Sunday.

24 teams will make the 2025 FCS playoffs with 11 automatic bids (conference winners) and 13 At-large bids. This will be the first year that the Ivy League will participate in the playoffs, making the bubble even tighter than usual.

Below are updated predictions for the Top 16 seeds, auto-bids, at-large bids, the bracket, and which teams will be on the bubble after Week 11 of the FCS football season.

Auto Bids:

Big Sky: Montana

CAA: Rhode Island

Ivy League: Harvard

MVFC: North Dakota State

NEC: Central Connecticut State

OVC-Big South: Tennessee Tech

Patriot League: Lehigh

Pioneer League: Drake

SoCon: Mercer

Southland: Stephen F. Austin

UAC: Abilene Christian

At-Large Bids:

Montana

Tarleton State

North Dakota

Monmouth

UC Davis

South Dakota State

Villanova

Lamar

Youngstown State

Last Four In:

South Dakota

Western Carolina

Illinois State

Northern Arizona

Seeds:

1. North Dakota

2. Montana State

3. Montana

4. Lehigh

5. Tarleton State

6. Tennessee Tech

7. Harvard

8. Mercer

9. UC Davis

10. North Dakota

11. Monmouth

12. Stephen F. Austin

13. Rhode Island

14. South Dakota State

15. Abilene Christian

16. Villanova

Bubble Teams Left Out:

Southeastern Louisiana

Dartmouth

Southern Utah

New Hampshire

William & Mary

Austin Peay

Lafayette

Southern Illinois

Projected First-Round Matchups:

South Dakota at No. 9 UC Davis (Winner at No. 8 Mercer)

Illinois State at No. 10 North Dakota (Winner at No. 7 Harvard)

Youngstown State at No. 11 Monmouth (Winner at No. 6 Tennessee Tech)

Drake at No. 12 Stephen F. Austin (Winner at No. 5 Tarleton State)

Central Connecticut State at No. 13 Rhode Island (Winner at No. 4 Lehigh)

Northern Arizona at No. 14 South Dakota State (Winner at No. 3 Montana)

Lamar at No. 15 Abilene Christian (Winner at No. 2 Montana State)

Western Carolina at No. 16 Villanova (Winner at No. 1 North Dakota State)

Quick Thoughts & Analysis:

As a weekly reminder, these predictions will continue to shift based on future results. These predictions are also through the eyes of the playoff committee, not what we personally would do. Updated predictions will be released over the next two weeks, which could cause significant changes in our bracket projections, depending on the outcomes of multiple key matchups.

North Dakota State should have the No. 1 seed locked up barring an unexpected loss, which is unlikely with games against UNI and St. Thomas remaining. We projected the Bison to finish 12-0, including an FCS-high six ranked wins.

Montana and Montana State should settle the No. 2 seed debate on the final weekend of the regular season. Currently, the Bobcats have been playing better football, which is reflected in our projections, resulting in a projected win for them. That would put the Bobcats at 10-2 (10-1 vs the FCS) with ranked wins over Montana, NAU, and UC Davis. Even with a loss, Montana should still be in position for the No. 3 seed at 11-1 overall with key wins over Idaho, North Dakota, and Sacramento State.

Lehigh and Tarleton State should secure Top 5 seeds by winning out, which is what was projected here. The Mountain Hawks are on pace to finish 12-0, all against Division I opponents, and even with a suspect SOS, they would hold quality wins over Penn, Yale, and Lafayette in this scenario. As for the Texans, they would be 11-1 with an FBS win and quality wins over Austin Peay, Southern Utah, and West Georgia.

The committee has already shown they are high on Harvard, which is why the Crimson earned a Top 8 seed here. They have a chance to finish 10-0 with quality wins over Dartmouth, Penn, and Yale. Mercer also earns a Top 8 seed in this projection, finishing 9-1 against the FCS with a ranked win over Western Carolina. The Bears would be on a 9-game FCS winning streak, and the eye test suggests this team should be a Top 8 seed if they beat Chattanooga this weekend.

Trying to project the remaining Top 16 seeds is a much more challenging task, as multiple key games still remain over the next two weeks. Even with a loss against Montana State, UC Davis should secure a seed with a win over Sacramento State. The Aggies would be 8-3 (8-2 vs the FCS) with key wins over Southern Utah, NAU, Idaho, and Sac State. North Dakota would also be a lock at 8-4 (8-3 vs FCS) with ranked wins over Youngstown State, SIU, and SDSU.

Stephen F. Austin would have a strong case for a higher seed at 10-2 overall (9-1 vs FCS), including a ranked win over Lamar. The Lumberjacks would be on a 10-game winning streak in this scenario, making them one of the hottest teams in the country before the postseason. An upset loss to UNH may have cost Monmouth the auto bid, but the Hawks still have a case for a Top 16 seed. The Hawks are projected to finish 10-2 overall (10-1 vs FCS), their only loss coming without their starting quarterback. They also have a key head-to-head matchup over Villanova, which will also have a case for a Top 16 seed.

Rhode Island is projected to finish 10-2 overall, but doesn't have a ranked win or any signature wins. That could hurt the Rams' chances to receive a higher seed, but they should still be in position for one of the Top 16 seeds. South Dakota State should also be a lock at 8-4, which is what we projected here. Even with their losing streak, the Jackrabbits would have three ranked wins and one of the better resumes among teams fighting for one of the last seeds in the field.

Abilene Christian should finish 8-4, holding ranked wins over Tarleton, West Georgia, Austin Peay, and Stephen F. Austin. The Wildcats will need to avoid an upset in their final two games, but the committee should reward the ranked wins and Top 10 SOS here and give the Wildcats one of the final seeds. It was a tough decision for the final seed, but Villanova got the nod with a 9-2 overall record (9-1 vs the FCS), its only loss coming against Monmouth.

As for unseeded at-large teams, Illinois State and South Dakota are projected to make the field with an overall record of 8-4. The Coyotes may have a case for a seed with two ranked wins over SDSU and UND. One of USD's losses came against Lamar, which is also projected into the field at 9-3 overall with ranked wins over SLU and the Coyotes.

Northern Arizona and Western Carolina are also projected as two of the last four teams in the field with 8-4 records. The Lumberjacks won't have any now-ranked wins, but have a then-ranked win over UIW and will finish with a Top 15 SOS. This team also got the benefit of the doubt from the committee last year, which could hold some weight. As for the Catamounts, they are projected to finish 8-4, but will be 8-1 with Taron Dickens starting; their only loss was against Mercer in a two-point game.

The most controversial decision here was to leave out Southeastern Louisiana, who, in this projection, would finish 8-4 (8-2 vs FCS) with an upset loss to UIW this weekend. The Lions would have no ranked wins, and their SOS is projected to be 57th, which ultimately was the biggest difference between them and NAU for the final spot.