2025 NFL Draft Projections: Latest mock drafts following NFL Combine and free agency shaking up rankings across the board

Before jumping into all the top players in the graphic above, here are a few quick helpful notes if you care about the why, what, and how of this all.

- The "early" projection for each player is probably near their ceiling, but they could certainly be selected before that mark (especially QBs).
- The "median" is in many cases quite different from the players' overall rank, especially after pick 21. This speaks to the lack of certainty and confidence in any one player being selected that begins to emerge after the elite prospects are off the board. The "safe" first round projections end around pick 21.
- Just like the "early" projection, the "late" mark is somewhere near the floor for a prospect to be selected, but late-process concerns still may surface that shift floors further out for a handful of these players.
- These probability distributions aren't perfect, but likely account for about 90% of possible outcomes for each player given what we know today (even if the distribution tails are a little long). A couple nerdy statistical curve-fitting and distribution-building methods were used to get these as accurate as we can this early in the pre-draft process.

Alright, enough of the nerdy explanations. Without further ado, let's try and predict the 2025 NFL Draft future and talk through where the Top 96 prospects could be selected to paint a picture of what the first three rounds might look like.

Safe First Round Projections

1. Cam Ward, QB Miami: Early 1, Median 1, Late 6
2. Abdul Carter, EDGE Penn State: Early 1, Median 2, Late 8
3. Travis Hunter, CB/WR: Early 1, Median 2, Late 8
4. Shedeur Sanders, QB Colorado: Early 1, Median 3, Late 13
5. Mason Graham, DT Michigan: Early 3, Median 5, Late 16
6. Will Johnson, CB Michigan: Early 3, Median 7, Late 19
7. Tetairoa McMillan, WR Arizona: Early 4, Median 8, Late 20
8. Will Campbell, OT LSU: Early 4, Median 8, Late 20
9. Ashton Jeanty, RB Boise State: Early 5, Median 9, Late 22
10. Tyler Warren, TE Penn State: Early 5, Median 10, Late 23
11. Kelvin Banks Jr., OT Texas: Early 6, Median 13, Late 27
12. Malaki Starks, S Georgia: Early 6, Median 14, Late 28
13. Shemar Stewart, EDGE Texas A&M: Early 7, Median 14, Late 29
14. Jalon Walker, LB Georgia: Early 7, Median 15, Late 30
15. James Pearce Jr., EDGE Tennessee: Early 7, Median 16, Late 31
16. Emeka Egbuka, WR Ohio State: Early 8, Median 18, Late 33
17. Josh Simmons, OT Ohio State: Early 10, Median 19, Late 35 
18. Kenneth Grant, DT Michigan: Early 9, Median 19, Late 35
19. Mykel Williams, EDGE Georgia: Early 9, Median 20, Late 36
20. Luther Burden, WR Missouri: Early 9, Median 20, Late 36
21. Colston Loveland, TE Michigan: Early 10, Median 19, Late 35

Cam Ward (QB, Miami) continues to emerge as the clear pick at first overall regardless of which team actually makes the selection (if not the Titans, possibly the Giants). Conversely, since the NFL Combine Shedeur Sanders' (QB, Colorado) consensus draft pick floor has been dropping. If he does make it past the Giants at three he could slide quite far now that the Raiders have Geno Smith.

Those concerned with Will Johnson's long speed have led to a slight drop in his consensus in some parts of the industry, but not here at A to Z Sports. He's still likely a Top 10 pick.

Both Emeka Egbuka and Luther Burden have started sliding in recent drafts as their best fit might not be until the 20s, but they're sticking around in this tier for now.

Josh Simmons continues to rise up this tier and could pass either or both other tackles in this group if he shows to be nearly healthy by April like he mentioned at the NFL Combine.

Likely First Round Projections

22. Shavon Revel Jr., CB East Carolina: 12, 28, 48
23. Nic Scourton, EDGE Texas A&M: 13, 29, 49
24. Walter Nolen, DT Ole Miss: 13, 29, 49
25. Tyler Booker, OL Alabama: 13, 30, 50 
26. Jahdae Barron, CB Texas: 15, 32, 52
27. Mike Green, EDGE Marshall: 15, 32, 53
28. Armand Membou, OT Missouri: 16, 33, 54
29. Josh Conerly Jr., OT Oregon: 17, 35, 57
30. Derrick Harmon, DT Oregon: 19, 38, 60
31. Jihaad Campbell, LB Alabama: 22, 42, 66
32. Nick Emmanwori, S South Carolina: 24, 44, 69

This tier is jam-packed with a bunch of risers and fallers in post-NFL Combine and free agency mock drafts. Nick Emmanwori and Jihaad Campbell are new here, but if trends continue they'll be sitting atop this group with Jahdae Barron (also ascending) by the end of March. Both were freak athletes at the NFL Combine and have performed well in team meetings according to multiple sources.

Armand Membou continues rising faster than any other prospect in the 2025 NFL Draft and he tested well at the NFL Combine. When he first declared he was considered a safe "day two" prospect. Now he's on pace to be a potential Top 10 pick if recent momentum continues.

The opposite can be said for Shavon Revel Jr. (CB, East Carolina) and Nic Scourton (EDGE, Texas A&M). Revel's inability to participate physically throughout this draft season has many defensive backs starting to pass him following the NFL Combine. Scourton weighed in closer to what he was at Purdue (where he had his best success) at the NFL Combine, but many are still surprisingly fading him for some reason.

Both players were considered "safe firsts" for the last few months, but could be on their way out of this tier soon unless something changes.

Safe First or Second Rounders

33. Aireontae Ersery, OT Minnesota: 26, 47, 73
34. Maxwell Hairston, CB Kentucky: 28, 49, 76
35. Princely Umanmielen, EDGE Ole Miss: 28, 49, 76
36. Jonah Savaiinaea, OT Arizona: 28, 50, 77
37. Matthew Golden, WR Texas: 29, 50, 78
38. Benjamin Morrison, CB Notre Dame: 29, 51, 79
39. Omarion Hampton, RB North Carolina: 31, 53, 82
40. Azareye'h Thomas, CB Florida State: 31, 54, 82
41. Tyleik Williams, DT Ohio State: 32, 54, 83

This tier is full of questions and possible sky high upside. Aireontae Ersery, Princely Umanmielen, and Jonah Savaiinaea were considered late first round projections for months, but in recent data they're beginning to drop. None of them tested truly "elite" at the NFL Combine, so some may be overlooking them in favor of players who look like the flavor of the week following their impressive athletic testing.

Matthew Golden (WR, Texas) and Omarion Hampton (RB, North Carolina) continue to climb into first round discussions as potential stars who could shock the world with much earlier draft capital than originally expected thanks to their good physical testing, interviews, and more.

Likely First or Second Round Projections

42. Tre Harris, WR Ole Miss: 33, 57, 86
43. Donovan Jackson, OL Ohio State: 34, 58, 88
44. Jaxson Dart, QB Ole Miss: 35, 59, 90
45. Jalen Milroe, QB Alabama: 36, 60, 92
46. Wyatt Milum, OT West Virginia: 37, 61, 926
47. Donovan Ezeiruaku, EDGE Boston College: 37, 62, 94
48. Trey Amos, CB Ole Miss: 38, 63, 96
49. Marcus Mbow, OL Purdue: 39, 64, 96
50. Elic Ayomanor, WR Stanford: 39, 64, 96
51. Grey Zabel, OL North Dakota State: 40, 65, 98
52. Cameron Williams, OT Texas: 40, 65, 98
53. Kaleb Johnson, RB Iowa: 40, 66, 99

This tier is where the draft day volatility really sets in. The true potential draft ranges for this group likely extent a bit further than even what's listed because all of them offer incredible upside, but have at least one or two questions with their profile. And those questions are often reflected by wide variance in their draft slots for mock drafts.

Jaxson Dart (QB, Ole Miss) could actually be selected as high as QB2 in this draft, inside round one, yet there still many who have questions about the Ole Miss scheme and his processing, so he still sits in this tier. Meanwhile, Jalen Milroe's (QB, Alabama) physical upside is keeping him with this bunch, but his passing profile does not suggest he belongs. He may the favorite to drop outside the first two rounds and this entire tier soon.

Wyatt Milum (OT, West Virginia) is perhaps the lone standout in this group as industry consensus has torpedoed his draft stock in a small sample within the last week. It's been a strangely wild overreaction to his NFL Combine performance for a guy who tested like a 60th% percentile NFL athlete among his fellow offensive linemen.

Donovan Ezeiruaku (EDGE, Boston College) and Grey Zabel (OL, North Dakota State) are the fastest rising prospects in this group and could find themselves leaping up into first round range soon if recent trends hold.

Safe Day Two Prospects

54. Jack Sawyer, EDGE Ohio State: 43, 70, 104
55. T.J. Sanders, DT South Carolina: 44, 71, 106
56. Xavier Watts, S Notre Dame: 44, 71, 106
57. Landon Jackson, EDGE Arkansas: 46, 73, 109
58. Deone Walker, DT Kentucky: 46, 74, 110
59. Isaiah Bond, WR Texas: 46, 74, 110
60. TreVeyon Henderson, RB Ohio State: 49, 78, 115
61. Darien Porter, CB Iowa State: 49, 78, 115
62. Tate Ratledge, IOL Georgia: 50, 79, 116
63. Harold Fannin Jr., TE Bowling Green: 50, 79, 117
64. Jayden Higgins, WR Iowa State: 51, 80, 118
65. Emery Jones Jr., OT LSU: 51, 80, 118

The best data scientists and experts who try to predict NFL Draft outcomes (some on staff with NFL teams) generally can successfully project just over 90% of the "players selected by pick 'x'" through the 40th overall range in most years, but once we arrive to the midpoint of round two the results always drop off. This year is no exception.

The expected draft ranges get as wide as 60+ picks in this group, which may seem excessive, but this is where the entire 2025 NFL Draft class; pick probability distributions begin to flatten quickly.

This tier's workout warriors seeing a big boost in the last week: Landon Jackson (EDGE, Arkansas), TreVeyon Henderson (RB, Ohio State), Darien Porter (CB, Iowa State), and Tate Ratledge (IOL, Georgia). All four saw their consensus draft stocks getting a bit sluggish prior to the NFL Combine, but after all of them tested at or above the 88th percentile they're rising once again.

Deone Walker and Isaiah Bond have been slowly sliding for months following down and injured seasons, but they're reaching the lowest that it would make sense to go for them. Bond was dinged up for much of last fall, but is still one of the most explosive wide receivers in this class. Walker was playing through a broken back in the SEC.

Best of the Rest 2025 NFL Prospects

66. Quinshon Judkins, RB Ohio State: 52, 81, 120
67. Darius Alexander, DT Toledo: 52, 82, 120
68. Chris Paul Jr., LB Ole Miss: 52, 82, 121
69. J.T. Tuimoloau, EDGE Ohio State: 53, 82, 122
70. Xavier Restrepo, WR Miami (FL): 53, 83, 122
71. Kyle Kennard, EDGE South Carolina: 53, 83, 122
72. Omarr Norman-Lott, DT Tennessee: 54, 84, 124
73. Carson Schwesinger, LB UCLA: 54, 84, 124
74. Elijah Arroyo, Te Miami (FL): 54, 85, 125
75. Alfred Collins, DT Texas: 55, 85, 126
76. Andrew Mukuba, S Texas: 56, 87, 127
77. Jalen Royals, WR Utah State: 57, 88, 129
78. Charles Grant, OL William & Mary: 57, 88, 130
79. Zy Alexander, CB LSU: 57, 89, 130
80. Quincy Riley, CB Louisville: 57, 89, 130
81. Mason Taylor, TE LSU: 57, 89, 130
82. Jaylin Noel, WR Iowa State: 57, 89, 130
83. Cobee Bryant, CB Kansas: 58, 89, 131
84. Bradyn Swinson, EDGE LSU: 58, 89, 131
85. Gunnar Helm, TE Texas: 58, 90, 131
86. Jared Wilson, IOL Georgia: 58, 90, 132
87. Jordan Burch, EDGE Oregon: 59, 91, 134
88. Savion Williams, WR TCU: 59, 91, 134
89. Anthony Belton, OT NC State: 60, 92, 134
90. Denzel Burke, CB Ohio State: 60, 92, 135
91. Shemar Turner, DT Texas A&M: 60, 92, 135
92. Demetrius Knight, LB South Carolina: 60, 92, 135
93. Jack Bech, WR TCU: 60, 93, 135
94. Quinn Ewers, QB Texas: 60, 93, 136
95. Ja'Corey Brooks, WR Louisville: 60, 93, 136
96. DJ Giddens, RB Kansas State: 61, 93, 136

Once the NFL Draft gets into round three the best "selected by pick X" models bat somewhere in the mid 80s percentage-wise each year. However, accuracy and predictability begins to drop quickly before the cliff that happens in early round four.

By pick 90 or 100 in most years the probability distribution overlap is such that the "who could go at this pick" range spans upwards of 50 different potential players. So, take the late round three projections with a grain of salt, but certainly expect most players early on this list to sneak into day two.

Darius Alexander (DL, Toledo), Mason Taylor (TE, LSU), and Jack Bech (WR, TCU) are the three players rising faster than others in this tier. All three have performed well at the Senior Bowl, in NFL Combine interviews, and could perhaps find their way into round two if recent trends persist. Conversely, Chris Paul's short arms, Zy Alexander and Cobee Bryant's horrible athletic testing, and perhaps Quincy Riley's age have them sliding in this group.

Who are the wild card players to watch in this group who are probably just going to go earlier than consensus has them right now when the draft rolls around? Carson Schwesinger (LB, UCLA) with his impressive instincts, Jordan Burch (EDGE, Oregon) with his rare blend of length, speed, and power, and Jared Wilson (IOL, Georgia) as the best true center in the class.

We'll be back with more NFL Draft coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

And if you want a reminder as to why Cam Ward is emerging as the clear top option for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft just check out his 2024 highlights below!